Another strategy emerged later in June after videos of mass raids in Penza flooded social media, one of the poorest cities in European Russia. They showed police and military officers, sometimes accompanied by men in balaclavas, appearing to stop civilian men at checkpoints, on the street and on public transport, loading them into minibusses and taking them to military enlistment offices where some were then forced to sign contracts to fight in the war.
Penza authorities have repeatedly denied any involvement in the alleged abductions and forced recruitment.
The Penza campaign is alleged to be part of a broader government effort to push regions to recruit more men and meet quotas without officially declaring mobilization. According to news reports, Russia’s defense ministry has set an official target of recruiting 409,000 contract soldiers by the end of 2026.
But “this initiative could backfire on authorities,” said Tabalov again. “Citizens in Penza have already begun to self-organize — forming self-defense squads — and that, frankly, amounts to a challenge to state power.”
In August, Penza blogger Stanislav Morozov created a group that garnered around 1,500 members, assisting men facing detention and coercion. “We are doing this out of desperation. Because we simply have no other choice left. We are people standing up for our fundamental rights and freedoms — the right not to be turned into a commodity or stripped of our will under the threat of a baton,” he wrote. Bashmakovo residents also reportedly formed a self-defense squad to patrol the area, filming “recruiters,” recording their license plates and trying to identify those concealing their identities.
Regardless of the recruitment shortfall, no official announcement regarding a possible mobilization is expected before September, when Russia will hold its parliamentary elections. Though no anti-war parties have been allowed to enter the race, both Putin himself and his ruling United Russia party are facing declining support, and an official military call-up would not help the Russian leader’s political standing.
And yet, a mobilization is becoming increasingly difficult for the Kremlin to avoid. “I think destroying Ukraine is [Putin’s] obsession, and this fixed idea requires manpower,” said Tabalov. “The only resource left — given the failure of other attempts — is mobilization.”
The Kremlin, the Russian Defense Ministry and the National Guard of Russia did not respond to POLITICO’s request for comment by the time of publication.