“Some estimates of his personal vote suggest he could have added up to 20 points or so to Labour’s vote share in Gorton and Denton, and 5 points on top of Labour vote intention nationwide,” as YouGov analyst Patrick English put it. “He’d need every bit of that personal boost to hold off Reform in Makerfield.”
Farage’s team are vowing to throw money, activists and major national attention at the contest — and they’re planning for the leader to spend a lot of time on the ground in the campaign.
“I struggle to see locals thinking voting Labour gets Starmer out,” said one of Farage’s advisers. There is early evidence though that the message will get across.
The Social Market Foundation has been examining online notice boards as part of research into misinformation — and its analysts have already been picking up on conversations in Makerfield groups about how they’re potentially electing the next prime minister.
There will be other distractions too. This is a by-election forced by the resignation of Josh Simons, who was only elected in Makerfield in 2024.
He has made no secret of the fact he acted to clear the way for a Burnham leadership pitch. But those who know Simons have all been asking what kind of deal he has cut. That question, as well as why Simons quit on his constituents, will be a feature of the campaign.