Eclectic supporters
Despite years of speculation that he would go for the prime minister’s job, Radev only finally revealed his Progressive Bulgaria project in March.
While Radev doesn’t formally lead Progressive Bulgaria, he is unmistakably its face. The movement features a motley assembly of politicians close to him or some who changed their allegiance, and also includes military figures, newcomers and former sports personalities. Only six women lead party lists across the country’s 31 electoral districts.
“His face is everywhere, which is probably what matters, because nobody else is recognizable,” said Dimitar Bechev, a senior fellow at Carnegie Europe.
Progressive Bulgaria has attracted an eclectic range of backers. Polls show it has drawn some supporters of the pro-Russian far-right Revival party. Ahmed Dogan, the founder of the ethnic Turkish DSP party and now a major rival of Peevski, has also expressed his support. And VMRO, a smaller nationalist grouping, has formally endorsed Radev’s party.
Yet the party’s program offers few specifics, and Radev has not positioned Progressive Bulgaria clearly on the political spectrum. His economic policies, for example, carry the marks of both left- and right-wing platforms.
In past weeks Radev has been on the campaign trail across the country. His social media team has posted images and videos of packed halls and applauding spectators. But he has given only two interviews during the campaign so far — one for the nation’s public broadcaster, and the other for a popular YouTube channel with a record of spreading disinformation and pro-Russian talking points. His press team declined an interview with POLITICO.
Bechev reads the silence strategically. “He keeps his cards close to his chest,” he said.
Boriana Dimitrova, managing partner at Sofia-based polling agency Alpha Research, added: “His strategy is to keep his statements as vague and unclear as possible to allow voters to hear whatever they would like to hear from him … He is casting a wide political net, trying to appeal to voters from both left and right on the political spectrum. He is trying to play ball with everyone.”
That approach could deliver votes on Sunday, but she warned it risked backfiring the moment Radev takes power. She called him “a paradoxical figure” — more polarizing than unifying as president and, as a prospective prime minister, “an omnivore, with little clarity about his principles or the solutions he offers.”
While Radev cut down on his pro-Russian rhetoric during the campaign, his views still popped up on several occasions, including on Bulgaria’s need for cheap Russian oil.
When the current caretaker government decided in late March to sign a 10-year cooperation agreement with Ukraine, Radev attacked it harshly, accusing the cabinet of “dragging us into war.”
Complex coalitions
Dimitrova noted Radev had anticipated an “electoral tsunami” and his allies had spoken of winning at least 120 out of 240 parliamentary seats. The polls, however, now suggest a more modest result. “He is failing to achieve the support that he and the people around him expected,” she said.
The harder question is what happens if he fails to achieve a majority.
The reformist coalition of We Continue the Change and Democratic Bulgaria seems like a natural partner on the anti-corruption front. However, they have clashed with Radev’s camp in the past over the war in Ukraine, and Radev’s Russia-friendly rhetoric might prove unpalatable for their supporters.
A sharp pivot toward Moscow would also fracture any coalition and antagonize Bulgaria’s EU and NATO partners. “It’s not a winning move,” Bechev said.
If a coalition with pro-Western parties does materialize, Bechev expected Radev might find it easier to stay quiet on Ukraine, and let his coalition allies do the talking on Russia policy.
Dimitrova raised another possibility: “He might try to build a minority government, trying to forge different alliances on different topics. However, that requires considerable political acumen,” she said. “We are about to see if he has it.”
That raises the deeper question of whether he has the skills the job demands. “Being president is a very different job description than being leader of the largest party and engaging in forging together an agreement with other parties,” Bechev said. “We haven’t seen him in action. We don’t know how he acts, what he’s capable of, what his limits are.”
If Radev fails to form a government, the cost will be steep. Political analysts warn his messiah halo might fade fast.
“The prospect of another snap election will likely weaken Radev’s position,” said Dimitrova.
Bechev agreed, warning that Radev “won’t have the aura of the outsider anymore.”
Bulgaria has seen this pattern before: The savior arrives, fails to govern, and soon loses the newcomer advantage that made them seem unstoppable. Radev knows better than most what happens when a plane stalls at altitude.