Given the Hungarian leader’s success in remaining in power, 10 EU officials and diplomats, all granted anonymity to speak freely with POLITICO, outlined what they see as the worst-case scenario: Orbán securing a fourth term and derailing budget negotiations.
“We are not in a rush, so if we win the elections, then we certainly don’t see the need to rush the agreement on the MFF through by the end of 2026,” said Hungarian Minister for European Affairs János Bóka.
During negotiations to date, the Hungarian government has called for the links between EU payments and respect for democratic standards to be dismantled. Those standards, however, are a key priority for wealthy Northern European countries, whose contributions to the EU budget largely exceed the payouts they receive in return.
“One can easily imagine how a discussion on the rule of law will be more difficult if a government [led by Viktor Orbán] that has had the most difficulties and recorded breaks of the rule of law stays in power,” said Jan Szyszko, Poland’s deputy minister for EU funds. “That’s clearly a risk.”
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz also expressed doubts on Wednesday, telling lawmakers in the Bundestag that it was unlikely the bloc’s budget would be finalized this year.
Most EU countries are dreading that scenario, given that the upcoming French presidential elections, slated for April 2027, could hand power to the far-right National Rally party and potentially further delay approval of the EU budget — a decision that requires unanimity and must take effect before the end of 2027.