Even before the war in the Middle East, airlines had signaled the bloc was facing a structural kerosene deficit, due in part to sanctions on Russian oil and declining European refining capacity. European jet fuel production relies on crude imports, mainly from the Middle East.
“Europe has long been a net importer of jet fuel, with imports accounting for roughly 30 percent of regional demand,” the International Air Transport Association (IATA) airline lobby warned last year.
“This growing reliance on imports, combined with uneven infrastructure development, underscores the risk of localized shortages and price volatility, particularly if geopolitical shocks or sanctions constrain global jet fuel availability further,” the IATA wrote in its 2025 analysis, which now sounds prescient.
While identifying France as the second-most exposed country in Europe to a potential jet fuel crunch, Kpler’s Shaw said he believes Paris will have less trouble than London in getting missing volumes of kerosene even if supplies from the Gulf remain blocked.
“It can get overland volumes from the Netherlands or Belgium,” which serve as “the oil hubs of Europe” given they are the main entry point for seaborne crude, he said.
Despite the looming fuel crunch, airlines are having a difficult time saving fuel. Since the beginning of the war in Iran, carriers have been forced to fly longer routes to avoid the Gulf, thereby burning more kerosene.