Iran is likely preparing for a resumption of hostilities with the US and Israel, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank assessed on Tuesday, pointing to a series of military movements and internal security exercises as signs of active preparation for renewed war.
The Washington-based institute, which has been publishing daily assessments of the war, said the Iranian regime appeared to view preparations for renewed fighting as inseparable from preparations to suppress domestic unrest.
The Tehran Province IRGC Mohammad Rasoul Ollah Unit — one of the regime’s primary internal security formations and the main IRGC command responsible for security in the capital — conducted an exercise on Tuesday.
The IRGC confirmed they carried out drills “to confront any movement of the … enemy”, state media reported Tuesday.
Separately, the Iranian military was scheduled to conduct drills at Mahshahr Port on Tuesday, approximately 100 kilometres from Bubiyan Island.
ISW said the IRGC Navy could use the drills to prepare for new operations if the ceasefire collapses or to disperse vessels ahead of resumed strikes.
The institute also assessed that Tehran was attempting to protect military assets by repositioning them in countries it calculated the US would not strike.
The assessment came amid reports that Iran’s missile stockpiles have largely survived the US-Israeli aerial campaign that started on 28 February, and were estimated to amount to roughly 70% of pre-war numbers.
Tehran has also reportedly restored operational access to 30 of its 33 missile sites along the Straight of Hormuz, according to US military assessments published by the New York Times on Monday.
Meanwhile, the IRGC is reportedly consolidating influence over Iran’s internal power structure under IRGC Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi and his inner circle, as peace talks remain stalled.
Tehran has made clear it will not negotiate without guarantees against future military strikes, including recognition of its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
US President Donald Trump described the ceasefire on Monday as on “massive life support” with “one percent chance” of surviving.
The Tehran regime’s consistent pursuit of international recognition of its sovereignty over the strait was its most important deterrence tool, ISW said.
Such an outcome, according to the think tank, would have severe consequences for global trade, and particularly for Gulf states dependent on maritime routes.
Neither side willing to budge
Iran’s chief negotiator said Tuesday that Washington must accept Tehran’s latest peace plan or face failure, after Trump warned the truce in the Middle East war was on the brink of collapse.
The war, which erupted more than two months ago, has spread throughout the Middle East and roiled the global economy despite the ceasefire, impacting hundreds of millions worldwide.
Both sides have refused to make concessions and repeatedly threatened to resume fighting.
“There is no alternative but to accept the rights of the Iranian people as laid out in the 14-point proposal. Any other approach will be completely inconclusive, nothing but one failure after another,” Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said in a post on X.
“The longer they drag their feet, the more American taxpayers will pay for it.”
The Pentagon said on Tuesday that the cost of the war had climbed to nearly $29 billion (€24.7bn) — about $4 billion (€3.4bn) higher than an estimate offered two weeks ago.
Iran sent its latest proposal in response to an earlier US plan, details of which remain limited. Media reports have said Washington’s plan involved a one-page memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the fighting and establishing a framework for negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme.
Iran’s foreign ministry said its response called for ending the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon, halting the US naval blockade of Iranian ports and securing the release of Iranian assets frozen abroad under longstanding sanctions.
But Trump slammed Tehran’s reply as “totally unacceptable,” saying the US would enjoy a “complete victory” over Iran and that the truce that has halted fighting for over a month was on its last legs.
The US president subsequently said ahead of his Tuesday departure for a trip to China that he would have a “long talk” with counterpart Xi Jinping about Iran, but that he does not need Beijing’s help to end the war.
Iranian Defence Ministry spokesman Reza Talaei-Nik said if the US declines a diplomatic path, “it should expect a repeat of its defeats on the military battlefield”.