“I think that political dynamics will be more important … I see a scenario where senior officials such as the head of the supreme court and constitutional court start cooperating with Magyar if he has a sizeable majority,” said Zselyke Csaky, a senior fellow at the Centre for European Reform think tank.
However, fulfilling the “super milestones” is only the first step toward unlocking the €10 billion post-Covid money before the August deadline. The Hungarian government will then have to carry out more granular reforms linked to the climate and digital transition to fully recover the funds.
“The money is not entirely lost, we think that part of it can be recovered,” said another senior Commission official. They added that Hungary could exploit two possible loopholes to allow for a longer deadline: transferring the money to its national promotion bank, or merging it with EU regional funding.
The remaining frozen €7 billion, for instance, is linked to separate EU payouts made to poorer regions, which are governed by different rules. Magyar has more time to claim those funds as they expire after 2028.
Hungary under Magyar will have “a pragmatic relation with [Commission President] Ursula von der Leyen and Brussels … It’s like business but mutually beneficial, for Hungary and the EU, and a keeping-your-word kind of business,” Tisza MEP Zoltán Tarr told POLITICO.
But no matter who wins, the Commission will remain under pressure from its top court to apply its rules strictly.
In a stark warning earlier this year, a senior legal adviser to the Court of Justice of the European Union recommended annulling the December 2023 decision to free up €10 billion in EU funds to Hungary. He argued that the money was disbursed before the reforms were undertaken by Orbán’s government.
“I don’t think it would be a good thing if the Commission just gave carte blanche to the new Hungarian government like it did to Poland [in 2024],” Csaky said.