Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita is one of the most widely used tools for comparing economies — and across much of Europe, the trajectory is upward.
But a rising figure does not always mean a country is pulling ahead of its peers: rankings shift as all economies move together. Where a country sits in the table often tells a more useful story than the raw number.
So which European countries are expected to lead in GDP per capita by 2030, and are any significant shifts on the way?
Euronews Business has examined IMF World Economic Outlook projections for 2025 and 2030, covering both nominal GDP per capita and purchasing power parity (PPP), which adjusts for price differences between countries.
Ireland overtakes Luxembourg in PPP
Among 41 European countries — including EU members, candidate countries, EFTA members and the UK — Ireland is projected to top the GDP per capita PPP table by 2030, displacing Luxembourg, which leads in 2025.
The headline figure comes with a significant caveat. Ireland’s GDP is well known to be distorted by the outsized presence of multinational corporations, and Alan Barrett, director of the Economic and Social Research Institute, argues that gross national income (GNI) is a far better gauge of the country’s actual economic output.
On World Bank GNI figures for 2024, Ireland would not feature in the top four at all.
Norway, Switzerland and Denmark are projected to round out the top five, their positions stable between 2025 and 2030.
Among Europe’s five biggest economies, Germany ranks highest at 12th, followed by France (15th) and the UK (16th). Italy sits at 18th, with Spain the lowest of the five at 22nd.
Candidate countries rank lowest — with one exception
The bottom nine positions are dominated by EU candidate countries, with Ukraine, Kosovo and Moldova propping up the table. Turkey is the outlier among them, projected to rank 29th in 2030 — above three full EU members: Bulgaria, Latvia and Greece.
Fifteen countries are expected to hold their positions between 2025 and 2030. Greece sees the steepest drop, falling from 29th to 32nd, while Cyprus makes the biggest gain, climbing from 16th to 13th.
No other country is projected to shift by more than three places.
The gap between nominal and PPP rankings tells its own story. Malta, Romania, Poland and Turkey all rank considerably higher in PPP terms than in nominal euros — suggesting their real purchasing power outstrips what the raw figures imply.
The reverse is true for Estonia, the UK, Iceland and Latvia, where PPP rankings fall noticeably behind their nominal positions.
At the top of the table, the gaps are stark. Ireland and Luxembourg are outliers by some distance, with projected GDP per capita of $182,000 (€168,000 approx) and $167,000 (€154,000 approx) respectively in international dollars.
Norway and Switzerland follow, both expected to exceed $115,000 (€106,000 approx) by 2030.
Strip out Ireland and Luxembourg, and the gaps within the EU remain striking. Denmark leads the remaining pack at $100,000 (€92,000 approx), nearly double Greece’s $54,000 (€50,000 approx) — the lowest figure among EU members.
Among the major economies, Germany has the highest purchasing power at $86,000 (€79,000 approx), with Spain the weakest at $66,000 (€61,000 approx) — a gap of roughly 31%.
Outside the EU, the picture is starker still. Almost all candidate countries are projected to come in below $50,000 (€46,000 approx), and several fall well short of that, with figures below $30,000 (€28,000 approx) — roughly half of Greece’s level. The distance between the EU and the countries waiting to join it remains vast.
Gap deepens in euro terms
In nominal euro terms, the spread is even wider. IMF projections put GDP per capita across the 41 countries at anywhere from €7,276 in Ukraine to €152,417 in Luxembourg by 2030 — a gap that dwarfs what PPP comparisons suggest. Bulgaria sits at the bottom of the EU at €28,086.
Even setting aside Luxembourg and Ireland (€137,819), the range within the bloc is considerable.
Denmark ranks third among EU members at €84,128, followed by the Netherlands (€79,613), Sweden (€73,104) and Austria (€67,406).
Germany, at €65,924, ranks 10th overall — the only one of Europe’s five largest economies to make the top ten. The UK follows closely in 11th at €64,360.
Beyond the EU, Switzerland (€127,846), Iceland (€108,366) and Norway (€93,046) all rank in the top five overall, sitting between Luxembourg and Ireland at the summit.
The broader pattern holds: Northern and Western European countries cluster at the top, while Eastern Europe — and EU candidate countries in particular — trails well behind.