Badenoch, the party leader, has described maintaining the triple lock as “current” Conservative policy and in the “draft manifesto.” If it stays there, the party will have to set out where they will find billions of pounds to foot the bill of reversing the Labour policy.

The Conservative strategy right now is to downplay the purported savings Burnham reckons can be found by the triple lock tinkering — and instead insist they can find many more billions by reducing the working age welfare bill.

Marginal gains

As the second shadow Cabinet minister put it, “fiddling in the margins” won’t find the money to fulfill a proper overhaul to social care. They believe Burnham’s “bulls–t” will be exposed as having many more holes over time.

Shadow Foreign Secretary Tom Tugendhat, who is one of the senior Tories who has publicly suggested maintaining the lock is unsustainable, at the 2026 Concordia Annual Summit in New York on Sept. 22. | Paul Morigi/Getty Images for Concordia Summit

Either way, the heat of an election campaign may force the Conservatives to detail what they will — or won’t — do in response to the government’s gambit.

“No policy is still a policy,” said the third shadow Cabinet minister, arguing they could duck going into the election with their own distinct plan to change the status quo.

“We’d need to explain what we’re doing and why we’re doing it,” they added. “But ultimately personal care is something we’ve all got responsibility for through our lives.”

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