European stocks were mostly up in the opening on Friday, and oil prices were inching upwards amid uncertainty as the ceasefire between the US and Iran appeared fragile and the Strait of Hormuz largely remained closed ahead of talks between the two sides on Saturday.
Talks between the US and Iran are expected to begin on Saturday in Islamabad, Pakistan, aimed at securing a permanent ceasefire in the Iran war, with US Vice President JD Vance set to lead the American delegation.
But ahead of the talks, deadly Israeli strikes on Lebanon on Wednesday raised questions about whether the two-week ceasefire in the Iran war is still intact. The Islamic Republic also maintained control over the Strait of Hormuz, which remains largely closed despite US demands to reopen the waterway critical for global oil and gas transport.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he had authorised talks with Lebanon, with negotiations expected in Washington next week.
According to analysts at Deutsche Bank Research, these talks are “significant because Lebanon has been a potential key stumbling block around the ceasefire”.
In a note, they added that “hopes for a de-escalation in Lebanon helped ease concerns that the broader ceasefire could fall apart ahead of this weekend’s talks”.
How markets are faring
Oil was up modestly on Friday. Brent crude, the international standard, was 0.8% higher at $96.71 per barrel, while benchmark US crude rose 0.4% to $98.60 a barrel.
On oil prices, Ajay Rajadhyaksha of Barclays wrote in a recent research note that “$65-70 a barrel is not coming back,” referring to pre-Iran war oil price levels.
The bank predicts that Brent crude could remain at around $85 per barrel on average for this year. “A ceasefire is not a refund,” he wrote. “Ceasefires end wars; they do not undo them.”
According to analysts at Deutsche Bank Research inflation concerns are still very elevated.
Today’s US inflation data for March, therefore, is significant; it will be the first to cover the period since the Iran war began on 28 February.
Deutsche Bank is expecting “a notable jump given the surge in gasoline prices, with monthly headline CPI rising to +0.95% in March”.
If so, “that would be the highest monthly print since June 2022,” they added. This figure would also push the year-on-year rate back up to 3.4%, according to the analysts, “which we haven’t seen since early 2024”.
In Europe, the leading stock indices were mostly gaining in the open, with Frankfurt’s DAX and Paris CAC gaining more than 0.5%, but the FTSE 100 in London was slightly down by a few points at first.
The Euro Stoxx was up by 0.7% in the opening
The generally hopeful mood on Thursday drove Wall Street gains, with the leading indices rising between 0.5% and 0.8% by the close.
Stock markets were trading higher in Asia on Friday, partly fuelled by a better-than-expected inflation figure from China, the world’s second-largest economy.
China on Friday reported that its consumer price index — a main inflation gauge — rose 1% in March from a year earlier, lower than analysts had expected and down from the 1.3% increase in February.
South Korea’s Kospi jumped 1.8% to 5,879.71. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.6% to 56,789.58.
Shares of Fast Retailing, parent of Japanese clothing retailer Uniqlo, surged more than 10% after the group raised profit expectations for the year.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 0.7% to 25,919.12, while the Shanghai Composite index rose 0.6% to 3,991.14.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.4%. Taiwan’s Taiex rose 1.3%, while India’s Sensex gained 0.7%.
Gold prices fell 0.8% to $4,778 an ounce, while silver prices dropped 1.1% to $75.6 per ounce.
The US dollar rose to 159.18 Japanese yen from 158.96 yen. The euro was trading at $1.1687, down from $1.1699.