“The expansion of Alabuga and its affiliated enterprises should be viewed not merely as a problem for the Ukrainian front, but as a long-term challenge to the security of the whole of Europe,” said Serhii Kuzan, head of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Centre.
In-housing production
Moscow is working to increase its domestic carbon fiber production to reduce its reliance on imports from China as it aims to manufacture around 130,000 drones for its national “Unmanned Aerial Systems” project by 2030, according to an analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank, this year. Russia plans to increase this to 350,000 by 2035.
Rosatom’s Alabuga-Volokno will aid this national effort. The three key reasons for expanding the factory include “import substitution of dual-use products” and “meeting the demand of Russian strategic sectors (aviation, defense industry) for carbon fiber,” according to the Rosatom documents.
The factory’s total capacity “could make 28,000 Shahed 136 drone airframes,” calculates weapons expert Albright, whose Institute for Science and International Security has conducted years of in-depth research on Russia’s drone production. Russia’s Geran-2 attack drones are based on the design of Iran’s Shahed.
“Without the carbon fiber, they can’t make the drone,” Albright said. Russia “can’t substitute for the carbon fiber in the drone and keep its weight down,” he explained, noting the material is used to strengthen the wing and internal structures, such as those for the fuel tank and engine.
Moscow is not getting enough polyacrylonitrile tow — a so-called PAN-precursor — used to make high-spec carbon fiber “for all their defense needs,” Albright said. Through the factory, Moscow is attempting to reduce its reliance on imports of the fibrous chemical essential to reinforcing its drones’ airframe.