This weakness in the polls is likely to be exacerbated by the split, as conservative and nationalist voters will now be divided among Kaczyński’s party, two far-right formations and Morawiecki’s group, which is seen as the most moderate of the pack.
Despite the rupture on the right, though, Tusk’s Civic Coalition could still struggle to build a coalition that will be bigger than the combined forces of the right.
The immediate confrontation inside PiS began on July 15, when the leadership ordered members to leave associations conducting political activity and submit declarations by midnight July 23.
Members who refused faced expulsion. Morawiecki and his backers spent the countdown to the deadline assuring media their future lay within PiS and that their goal was to broaden the party’s appeal to voters outside the core radical right-wing demographic.
Kaczyński selected hardline former Education Minister Przemysław Czarnek as the party’s candidate for prime minister in March, apparently sidelining Morawiecki and his strategy of rebuilding support among centrist and business-oriented voters.
Morawiecki created his association, known as Rozwój Plus (Development Plus), in mid-April. He has presented it as a platform for economic, technological and demographic policy rather than a future party.