Indeed, the government in Tehran has vowed to attack any ship trying to transit the strait, through which some 20 percent of the world’s oil and natural gas passes on its way from the Persian Gulf to global markets. Large volumes of aluminum and fertilizer pass through the strait as well.
Or rather, those are the transit volumes under ordinary circumstances. As of Feb. 28, conditions in the Strait of Hormuz have been decidedly extraordinary. “Right now, ships waiting to transit both on the inside and outside of the Hormuz are awaiting developments and not transiting,” said Svein Ringbakken, CEO of maritime war-risk insurer DNK. “Shipowners take the Iranian threats that ships will be attacked seriously and factor these into their risk assessments.”
Even when covered by war-risk insurance (yes, it’s available in wars, including this one), shipowners are highly cautious when it comes to active war zones like the strait. “They’re primarily concerned about ensuring the safety of their crews. To await developments is natural in an early phase of the conflict with major combat operations ongoing,” Ringbakken explained. Only a few ships have been able and willing to transit the strait since clashes began, and like the Danuta I, most of them were shadow vessels transporting Iranian oil.
The obvious question now is how long the conflict will last. Five days in, nine ships had already been hit or directly targeted in the strait or surrounding waters, with three crew members killed. And while U.S. President Donald Trump has said the war may last up to four to five weeks, wars famously deliver no certainty.
Furthermore, because shipping is global by its very nature, Europe will be affected as well. A Swedish-owned tanker, the Stena Imperative, which was transporting oil for the U.S. military, is among the vessels that have been struck. Meanwhile, many more ships waiting north and south of the strait are either owned or flagged in Europe, or are carrying cargo bound for the continent — mostly oil and gas, and possibly aluminum and urea, a nitrogen fertilizer crucial to global agriculture and thus food security.
Fortunately, the EU and the U.K. import most of their aluminum and urea from other countries, but they do import significant amounts of diesel, gasoline, oil, jet fuel and kerosene from the Gulf states.