Despite attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil exports from the Middle East Gulf region, excluding Iran, returned to pre-war levels in September, according to maritime tracking firm Kpler. The recovery followed changes to the region’s export routes.
“At least 16.5 mbd (million barrels a day) left the region between 1 and 28 September, matching the pre-war average excluding Iran. That is 10.5 mbd above March’s monthly average,” said the firm.
However, 40% of those exports now bypass the Strait of Hormuz, compared with 17% before the war, with pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates providing key alternative routes. Most crude crossing the strait changes tankers offshore.
The figures cover crude oil and condensate.
The export figures include shipments via the Red Sea, which exporters increasingly use to bypass Iran’s attempted blockade of Hormuz. Around a fifth of the world’s oil supplies passed through the strait before the conflict.
Oil prices remain well above their pre-war levels. International benchmark Brent crude futures for December delivery traded at $102.25 a barrel on Monday morning, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate traded at $90.50 a barrel.
Brent futures were around $72 before the war. The disruption to shipping through the strait has sent shock waves through the global economy, prompting countries to scramble for alternatives and sending fuel prices soaring.
Iran continues to claim control over the waterway, and ships travelling without its authorisation risk attack. Nevertheless, more vessels are getting through, while alternative routes are operating at full capacity.
Despite the recovery in exports, experts warned that conditions remained far from normal. A US blockade of Iranian ports continues to restrict a large share of Iran’s own oil exports.
Saudi Arabia has benefited from the reopening of its East–West pipeline, which connects its main oil fields in the east to the Red Sea terminal at Yanbu, bypassing Hormuz.
The pipeline shut down on 11 September after strikes launched from Iraq and resumed operations on 22 September, Kpler analyst Amena Bakr said last week.
The UAE also has a route around Hormuz through its pipeline linking Abu Dhabi’s oil fields to Fujairah, a terminal on the Gulf of Oman outside the strait.
The recovery in exports comes as the seven core members of OPEC+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, agreed on Sunday to leave their production targets unchanged for November, in line with expectations.
The seven countries produced about 25 million barrels of crude oil a day in August, up 630,000 barrels a day from July, according to OPEC’s September report.