But Mélenchon has suffered a “noticeable decline” in support among moderates, Lestrohan said. “The question is whether he can win them back despite his deteriorated image,” he added.
Mélenchon was criticized for campaigning the 2024 European election almost entirely on a platform devoted to the Palestinian cause, and more recently he faced widespread furor over his continued affiliation and defense of an antifascist organization whose members were accused of killing of an activist with ties to far-right groups.
The latest poll on the 2027 presidential election has Mélenchon netting between 12 and 13 percent of the vote — down from the nearly 22 percent he scored in the last election, but still within striking distance of advancing in such a crowded field.
To winnow down the number of left-wing candidates, the Greens and some members of the center-left Socialist Party want to hold a left-wing primary sans Mélenchon. But prominent figures like former President François Hollande and MEP Raphaël Glucksmann — both expected to launch presidential bids — are opposed to such a contest.
The dispute has been raging for months behind closed doors. Raquel Garrido, a former France Unbowed MP who has since broken with Mélenchon and advocates for a left-wing primary, told POLITICO the “chaos” among the rest of the French left proves Mélenchon right.
Mélenchon is now positioning himself for a showdown with the far right, and even trying to turn his image as a divider to his advantage.
“When it comes to the National Rally, yes, I will be divisive,” he said Sunday in an interview with online outlet Brut. “But I will also be able to bring people together. The two can certainly go hand in hand.”