By Peter Barabas from Doha
Published on
After a brief sigh of global relief over the Strait of Hormuz reopening in a path towards peace, Iran reignited the standoff by firing at ships attempting to cross the waterway on Saturday, triggering a new escalation amid questions as to who makes the decisions in Tehran, with three days before the ceasefire expires and with no new peace talks scheduled yet.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) who reports only to Iran’s supreme leader, signalled that it decides the conditions of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, contradicting Iranian foreign ministers Abbas Araghchi’s statement on Friday that the strait is open in a corridor “coordinated by Iran,” and US president Donald Trump’s ensuing announcements over a broader agreement with Iran.
On Saturday morning, the IRGC warned that the strait “reverted to its previous state of strict military control” as the US blockade continues, and then proceeded to fire and harass on ships attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz after Friday’s announcements, while the rest of tankers turned around abruptly.
Then on Saturday night, the IRGC said the strait is closed until the US blockade is lifted, warning that “no vessel should make any movement from its anchorage in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman, and approaching the Strait of Hormuz will be considered as cooperation with the enemy” and be targeted.
Iran’s chief negotiator, parliamentary speaker Mohammed Bagher Qalibaf, appeared to join the IRGC position on Sunday, some 24 hours after the IRGC announcements and mirroring them, saying the strait is now under Iran’s control and linking the choke point’s reopening to Washington lifting of its naval blockade.
“It is impossible for others to pass through the Strait of Hormuz while we cannot,” Qalibaf said on Iranian semi-official media, adding that if the U.S. does not lift the blockade, traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will definitely be restricted.”
US president Donald Trump on Saturday dismissed the latest Iranian moves saying Iran “got a little cute” but that “very good” conversations were happening, and more information would come by end of Saturday. “They can’t blackmail us,” he added.
To underline the volatile developments in the strait, an audio recorded on maritime frequencies on Saturday morning appears to show that Iranian forces fired on Indian oil tanker Sanmar Herald, which would be a first as India is a top importer of Iranian oil.
The captain of the Indian oil tanker Sanmar Herald is heard pleading desperately with the Iranian forces to stop firing at it, saying he had permission to cross. In a sign of the crisis widening, India summoned Iran’s ambassador in New Delhi over the attack on Saturday evening, urging Tehran to restore safe passage in the strait.
The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War think-tank states that “the IRGC appears to be controlling Iranian decision-making instead of Iranian political officials who are engaging with the United States in negotiations, particularly Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi.”
“The IRGC’s decision to interfere with international shipping and act in contradiction to Araghchi’s statement reflects broader divisions within the Iranian regime, which ISW-CTP has consistently reported on in recent weeks,” the ISW statement says.
In a further warning, an Iranian commander told the Iranian state television on Saturday that “If the war resumes, Iran will use missiles that were built just this month” and that war “will become global this time.”
The Iranian statement appears to coincide with US intelligence and military officials quoted by The New York Times on Saturday who estimate that Iran still maintains about 40% of its pre-war arsenal and long-range attack drones as well as 60% of its ballistic and cruise missiles launchers.
The NY Times report adds that Iran recovered firing systems buried inside caves and bunkers and that it reclaim as much as 70% of its pre-war stockpile of missiles, similarly buried in rubble from attacks on its bunkers and depots.
Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal quoted US officials on Saturday reporting that the US military is preparing to board Iran-linked oil tankers and seize commercial ships in international waters in coming days, officials say.
In addition, aviation monitoring portal Flightradar24 shows that US military equipment continues being transported to the Middle East at the same sustained buildup levels as during the war.
Therefore, the last 72 hours before the ceasefire expires will be shaped by decision-making in Tehran caught in a house of mirrors with the hardline, autonomous IRGC telegraphing it has the upper hand, while military buildup on both sides showed no signs of letting up on Sunday.