But the chancellor comes into the election in Saxony-Anhalt — and two more elections on Sept. 20 — in a precarious position. Already the least popular chancellor on record after 16 months in office, Merz’s fellow conservatives have been quietly debating what would be a remarkable scenario by German standards: replacing the chancellor — a so-called Kanzlertausch, or chancellor swap.
“Given the dissatisfaction, the poll numbers and the fact that there are additional elections coming up next year … the pressure for fundamental change will naturally increase,” said Julian Schache, a CDU politician from Magdeburg, Saxony-Anhalt’s capital. “I could certainly imagine that some will push for Friedrich Merz to step down. But whether that’s the solution remains to be seen.
Already, conservative politicians in eastern Germany don’t want Merz on the campaign trail. In the rare appearances he’s made in the region earlier, he was booed. Angry voters yelled “Pinocchio” and “warmongerer” during a visit this week, after which a planned press statement was canceled.
Scenario 1 — AfD wins power
If the AfD can win enough votes to govern alone in Saxony-Anhalt, it would in some respects be a simpler, easier outcome for Merz’s conservatives.
Some CDU politicians in the state see notable advantages that would give conservatives the benefit of what the AfD has long enjoyed — the ability to attack the government from the comfort of the opposition bench. Conservatives believe an AfD stint in government could well turn into a debacle that would demystify the far right — allowing for a later resurgence of the CDU.
“On the day [Siegmund] becomes premier, he’s finished,” said Alexander Räuscher, a CDU lawmaker from Saxony-Anhalt, referring to the AfD’s lead candidate in the race. “That’s my speculation. He’ll fail as state premier. He won’t be able to fulfill all the promises he’s made.”