The various scenarios polled by Elabe showed Philippe netting as much as 25.5 percent of the vote depending on which other candidates feature in the race, far better than any leftist candidate or Philippe’s centrist and center-right rivals.
The survey shows the National Rally retaining its place as France’s most popular political party and its candidate on track to comfortably qualify for the runoff in the country’s two-round voting system. Both Bardella and Le Pen come in ahead of the second-place finisher in all scenarios tested, often by double digits.
The poll also tested voter intentions for the second round of the vote, which showed a potential tight race. Philippe defeats Le Pen in a head-to-head matchup 53 percent to 47 percent. If he were to face Bardella, that shrinks to 51.5 percent to 48.5 percent — within the margin of error.
In the last survey taken of second-round scenarios in November, Bardella was seen beating all his challengers from the center-right to the hard left.
Far-right figures have publicly dismissed the poll, and with more than a year to go before the presidential election, a lot could change.
But the survey is likely to renew fears within the populist camp that the party will again be beaten in the next presidential election due to the tradition in France of uniting against the far right.