Before 11,500 troops marched through Moscow’s Red Square last year to a cacophony of trumpets and cannons, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, issued a stark warning.
“Any participation in the 9 May parades or celebrations in Moscow will not be taken lightly on the European side, considering that Russia is waging a full-scale war in Europe,” she said.
Despite the warning, nearly 30 world leaders attended the pomp-filled Victory Day parade, marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. Among them were high-profile guests such as Chinese President Xi Jinping, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico.
A year later, the parade returns in a scaled-back format. Russia’s Ministry of Defence said on Monday that no heavy military equipment will be displayed, citing fears of Ukrainian long-range drone attacks on the capital. The ministry also announced a two-day unilateral ceasefire in Ukraine beginning on Victory Day.
The news was cautiously welcomed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on social media platform X. He stated: “We believe that human life is far more valuable than any anniversary ‘celebration’.”
Several European leaders, such as Latvian Foreign Affairs Minister Baiba Braže and Estonian Foreign Affairs Margus Tsahkna, have dismissed Putin’s proposal of a temporary truce.
They argue that Russian actions speak louder than words, and have condemned what they describe as Putin’s “propaganda event” aimed at legitimising the ongoing invasion of Ukraine.
When asked what consequences had been imposed on leaders who attended last year’s celebrations, European Commission foreign affairs spokesperson Anita Hipper did not respond directly.
She said the parade’s return this week was about “exploiting the end of World War II celebrations for propaganda and the justification for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.”
“When it comes to May 9, we are celebrating Europe and all that it represents – namely peace, unity, prosperity and security,” Hipper added. “Everything that Russia is not standing for.”
But as the parade inches closer, questions loom over what repercussions leaders like Fico faced for making an appearance last year – and the future of an event that aims to validate Russia’s imperialist appetite.
Belarusian opposition leader condemns ‘propaganda tool’
Since Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy estimates 55,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed, with millions of civilians displaced. The invasion is Europe’s bloodiest since World War II.
Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tsikhanouskaya described Moscow’s 9 May event as “a celebration of war” and “a propaganda tool in the hands of Putin.”
Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko, a regular attendee, is expected to be present again in 2026, according to Russian media.
“Participation only helps legitimise and normalise Putin’s aggression,” Tsikhanouskaya said, adding that Lukashenko has long served Moscow’s interests “rather than those of the Belarusian people.”
Often described as Europe’s last dictator, Lukashenko faces EU sanctions over disputed elections widely seen as rigged in his favour. Russian state media TASS has reported that he has characterised his relationship with Putin as “brotherly.”
Earlier this week, Fico confirmed he would travel to Russia for the commemorations. He is expected to meet Putin and lay flowers at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, honouring Soviet soldiers killed in World War II, but will not attend the parade itself.
Jamie Shea, a senior fellow at the Friends of Europe think tank and a former NATO spokesperson, said Moscow is still likely to “play up” Fico’s visit, even if it falls short of full participation.
“Fico is trying to maintain a presence on both the EU and Russian fronts, albeit in a more discreet way,” Shea said.
“It may not attract the same level of criticism from Brussels as in the past. This could be seen as a quieter breach of the rules, rather than an outright provocation.”
Shea added that the more subdued format of this year’s parade could reduce the pressure on other leaders to attend in the future.
“The fact that Putin has chosen not to make a major spectacle of it this year – something that has been very important to the Kremlin in the past – is telling,” he said.
“Some will interpret this as a sign that Russia is so bogged down in Ukraine that it can no longer spare the troops or equipment for such displays.”
Juraj Majcin, a security and defence analyst at the European Policy Centre, said that without backing from all 27 EU member states, any punitive measures against attending leaders would be difficult to enforce.
“Even if Kallas warns of consequences, there is little she – or any EU body – can do unilaterally,” he said.
In the absence of a coordinated EU response, individual countries may act on their own.
“What Poland and the Baltic states have done – refusing to allow Fico’s aircraft to cross their airspace en route to Moscow – sends a strong signal,” Majcin said.
Putin’s address ‘an important one’
It is expected the parade in the Russian capital will take place this year without tanks, missiles and other military equipment. But it will feature an “important address” delivered by Putin, TASS reports.
Some smaller parades held elsewhere across the country have also been pared back or even cancelled for security reasons.
Speaking at the European Political Community (EPC) summit in the Armenian capital on Monday, alongside roughly 50 other world leaders and allies, Zelenskyy said : “this is telling”.
“It shows they are not strong now, so we must keep up the pressure through sanctions on them,” he said.