The Iran war is threatening international food security as production costs jump and vital export routes are severed. In particular, a supply squeeze on fertiliser has already caused farmers’ affordability to reach a four-year low.
That is the warning in a new report by the World Bank report which indicates the surge in costs is primarily driven by a spike in natural gas prices.
European agriculture ministers are now reportedly calling for urgent intervention to prevent a prolonged food price crisis and to safeguard grain harvests for next year’s season.
“Europe is not facing a supply issue for the current season given the relatively high output of European production which historically satisfies around 70% of European demand as well as record high import levels in Q4 2025,” a spokesperson for Fertilisers Europe told Euronews.
“However, farmers are operating in a complex environment and facing tight margins. EU institutions should reinforce aid and assistance to European farmers, while ensuring that such support does not come at the expense of competitiveness among EU fertiliser producers,” the spokesperson added.
Despite Europe faring better than other parts of the world in the current crisis, there is a real concern regarding future crops, which a representative at CropLife Europe also reinforced speaking to Euronews.
“European farmers are already operating under significant economic and regulatory pressure, and global shocks simply add fuel to that fire. Food security depends on resilience which means ensuring farmers have timely access to all the tools they need to protect crops and manage risk, even in periods of volatility,” the official stated.
Energy, fertilisers, food and the Strait of Hormuz
At the heart of the current agricultural crisis is the intrinsic link between energy markets and food production.
Natural gas serves as the primary feedstock for nitrogen-based fertilisers so any volatility in the energy sector translates directly into higher costs for farmers on the ground.
The World Bank’s latest assessment highlights that the surge in fuel and power prices, compounded by the halt of regional exports, is creating an unsustainable environment for global producers.
“As EU nitrogen fertiliser production is primarily based on natural gas, the spike in the natural gas costs will have an impact on the fertilizer production costs. In short, fertilizers are energy, so when energy costs rise, automatically fertiliser costs rise,” Fertilisers Europe told Euronews.
“It must be stressed that Europe is not currently facing a fertiliser supply issue,” the spokesperson noted.
However, a severe and accelerating fertilizer crisis is currently hitting Asia and the Global South, with significant shortages triggered by shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, according to the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO).
FAO highlights that the hardest-hit regions include India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Egypt, Sudan and various parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, which are seeing elevated costs, reduced availability, and looming food insecurity.
The Food Price Index released by FAO has also begun to surge in reaction to these mounting pressures. While the index tracks a basket of food commodities, the underlying cost of inputs is a primary driver of future price directions.
Analysts note that as transport expenses rise and logistics within conflict zones become increasingly complex, the “fertiliser squeeze” will likely push food prices well beyond current levels.
For many emerging economies already grappling with high inflation, these developments may necessitate a tightening of monetary policy to prevent broader economic instability.
The World Bank report notes that the reduction in fertiliser application today could lead to significantly lower harvests in the coming seasons, potentially extending the duration of the current poverty crisis.
European alarm and the threat to future harvests
In Europe the concern is precisely on the yield of next year’s crops.
With the cost of production inputs reaching record highs, there are growing fears that farmers may be forced to reduce fertiliser use during critical planting windows.
Expert modelling from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) suggests that such a reduction would almost certainly result in significantly lower harvests in the next growing season, specifically impacting global grain stocks.
This is why even if Europe is not currently facing a fertiliser supply issue it still needs immediate and coordinated action to stabilise the internal market and support domestic producers.
European agriculture ministers are reportedly calling for strategies to safeguard the supply of fertilisers and to mitigate the impact of high energy prices on the agricultural sector across EU countries.
The spokesperson of Fertilisers Europe emphasised to Euronews that beyond any current strategy to handle the effects of the Iran war, there must be a fundamental shift in how the sector is approached.
“Longer-term, European strategic autonomy on food cannot stop at farms or shelves. It must include the upstream inputs that make food production possible,” the spokesperson stated.
“Ahead of the upcoming Fertiliser Action Plan, we called on the European Commission to recognise the European fertiliser industry as a strategic pillar of the EU’s strategic autonomy,” the spokesperson added.
As the World Bank warns, the current trajectory could lead to a persistent cycle of high prices and low supply, disproportionately affecting regions that are already food-insecure.
Without a stabilisation of the energy markets and a restoration of fertiliser supply chains, the secondary effects of the Iran war may be felt in the global food supply chain long after the immediate military tensions have subsided.