Stijn van Kessel, a professor of comparative politics at Queen Mary University of London, said the narrative that Trump, Le Pen and Farage promote establishment conspiracies is so powerful because millions of voters in France and the U.K. feel like they have been conspired against too.
Van Kessel said it wasn’t clear whether Farage and Le Pen would be able to use their troubles to invigorate their voting bases or suffer electorally.
“Politicians such as Nigel Farage and Marine Le Pen have been able to fuel and tap into anti-immigration sentiments as well as this voter distrust,” he said. “There are various structural reasons for that — such as inequality, people not seeing their lives improving, and the fear that their national identity is being eroded — and these politicians have been very successful at winning support on that basis.”
Research has found a link between the decline in standards of public services across Western European countries and rising support for the far right, driving the narrative that immigration is partly behind the pressures voters feel in their lives, said van Kessel. “People have been feeling that politicians have not been listening to their concerns.”
One risk for Farage, however, is that his gamble of calling a snap election backfires in another way. Farage vowed to fight his opponents in the special election in Clacton, England and prove that voters believe him — not them. But the other major parties have dismissed his gambit as a “stunt,” a “sham” and a “fake” contest, announcing they will not even bother to put up candidates to fight him. That would render the contest potentially meaningless — and it could get even worse.
The one candidate who has already declared he will take on Farage is the satirical candidate known as Count Binface, who is widely known to television audiences in the U.K. for standing in the constituencies of sitting prime ministers.
With his black cape and a silver trash can covering his head, Binface cuts a peculiarly British comic figure, reminiscent of a Monty Python sketch. But how many votes will he receive if he’s the only prominent opponent facing Farage? Could becoming the butt of a Count Binface joke inflict more damage on the Reform UK leader than the political establishment has managed in two decades?
“I am hesitant to say that this will be the end of Farage if the election turns out to be a joke,” said van Kessel. Le Pen and her National Rally party should not be written off either, he noted. “Support for far-right parties doesn’t just go away if politicians have a bad day.”