The military action by the US and Israel against Iran is leading to price increases in the energy sector. The Hormuz trade route in the Persian Gulf is still blocked by the Iranian regime. Attacks on tankers, refineries and oil infrastructure are continuing.
The price of Brent oil has risen dramatically, exceeding the $100 per barrel mark for the first time since 2022. Kerosene prices are also rising and aircraft fuel accounts for 20% to 30% of operating costs for most airlines.
This means that flying is becoming more expensive for holidaymakers and could become even more expensive in the coming weeks.
This is because paraffin prices usually rise even more than crude oil prices due to so-called panic surcharges. Paraffin is largely produced from oil. The high additional costs are partly passed on to passengers.
On Monday morning, Sven Maertens, Deputy Director at the Institute of Air Transport at the German Aerospace Centre, told the Frankfurter Rundschau newspaper: “If oil prices, and therefore paraffin prices, rise permanently, we can expect airlines to pass on at least some of these additional costs in the medium term through higher ticket prices.”
In the medium term, this means that the high flight prices could become more expensive over Easter and even over the summer if the Iran conflict lasts longer.
What German holidaymakers need to be prepared for now
There are already noticeable price increases for German travellers. This particularly affects routes such as Frankfurt to Singapore (before the war between 400 and 800 euros, now more than 2,000 euros for a return flight) or Munich/Frankfurt to Delhi (previously: 600 to 800 euros, now up to 2,000 euros).
Other Asian routes such as Bangkok, Mumbai or Beijing are also affected by a two- to five-fold increase in prices. There are also more expensive flight tickets for routes to Australia.
Some prices could fall again in one to two weeks
One reason for this is also that the Gulf region is an important transfer point and is currently being cancelled as such due to the Iran conflict. If the major Gulf airlines such as Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways were to resume medium to full flight operations, the airfare situation could also ease quickly – especially for German holidaymakers.
Emirates has already announced that it will operate a reduced flight schedule. The airline is currently aiming for an ambitious return of up to 100% of the flight network in the next few days, i.e. in one to two weeks at the most.
Prices could then possibly fall again by 30% to 70% or more – depending on the route. This could become noticeable for consumers in seven to 14 days at the latest.
However, the pure paraffin price increase would then still remain and be factored into ticket prices. German travellers must therefore continue to expect extreme price hikes.
Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr told ntv a few days ago that many airlines will have to pass on higher fuel costs through ticket prices due to the war in Iran. This would affect travel plans, especially to Asia, China and South Africa.
What holidaymakers can do now
Experts recommend booking flights early in view of the scenario that flight prices could rise further due to the conflict in the Middle East. It also helps to compare the prices of flight routes operated by different airlines**,** as the time of booking, remaining seat capacity and current demand often play a role in the price.
It is also advisable for every booker to monitor prices regularly and to activate “notification settings” on flight tracking platforms.
Extra costs can also be avoided by taking out travel insurance. Especially if holidaymakers are exposed to a particular risk of delays, cancellations or cancellations due to transfers over the Gulf region.
European destinations are less affected
In any case, the prices cannot be avoided so far: Due to the Iran war, there are currently no destinations where the flight prices for Easter 2026 have remained completely unchanged.
However, the price increase for some classic European destinations has so far been moderate.
For German holidaymakers, the cheapest prices – without extreme price jumps at present – can currently be found for destinations such as Spain(Majorca, Canary Islands, Costa del Sol, Barcelona, Andalusia), Portugal (Algarve, Porto, Lisbon), Italy(Sicily, Sardinia, Rome, Milan, Apulia) and Greece (Crete, Rhodes, Athens, Kos).
Croatia, Bulgaria and northern European city breaks to London, Budapest or Stockholm would also be cheaper options.
Flight prices would most likely only fall significantly again if the Iran war came to a recognisable end.