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The so-called Doomsday study is already 66 years old, but it is probably the best-known study about the end of the world. In 1960 researchers used a mathematical formula to calculate the end of humankind for Friday 13 November 2026. The article with the provocative title “Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026” was written by Austrian-American physicist Heinz von Foerster and his research team and published in the prestigious journal Science (source in German).
Key message and background of the Doomsday study
The researchers analysed historical data on the world population over the past two millennia and fitted a growth curve to it. Their projection was that if the then current growth rate of humans on Earth were extrapolated unchanged into the future, the curve would reach an infinite value in November 2026.
So by tomorrow, Friday, people would have multiplied to infinity. The mathematicians’ logical conclusion was that on this day humanity would, purely in mathematical terms, “crush” itself through overpopulation.
The study caused a worldwide stir at the time, and that was exactly the intention. By pinning the date to a Friday the 13th, Heinz von Foerster mainly wanted to draw attention to the issue of overpopulation, which was being intensely debated then. Until the early 1990s the curve matched the actual figures remarkably well. After that global population growth slowed significantly, which is why current projections tend to expect stabilisation at around 10 billion people.
Why the “end of the world” is not happening
The world population is still growing, but more and more slowly. At first the number of people increased sharply because fewer were dying. Later families around the world began having fewer children. The fastest growth was in 1963, at more than two per cent per year. By 2020 this growth had fallen to below one per cent.
According to estimates by the United Nations (UN), the number of people on Earth will peak in the mid-2080s at about 10.3 billion. After that the world population will slowly start to decline again.
Friday is not the first predicted end of the world
As early as 1910 there was widespread panic about Halley’s Comet. Newspapers warned of poisonous gases in its tail that could wipe out all life. Some traders exploited this fear and sold gas masks, protective pills or “comet umbrellas”. But the comet passed and nothing happened.
Later there were repeated dates like this. A US radio preacher predicted Judgement Day for 21 May 2011. On 21 December 2012 a cycle of the Mayan calendar ended, which many also interpreted as the end of the world.
Even science has sometimes been wrong. In 1972 the study “Limits to Growth” warned that we would soon run out of vital raw materials. But people found new sources and solutions, and many commodities even became cheaper.
The problem with such predictions is always the same: past trends are simply projected into the future. This overlooks the fact that people respond to problems and adapt. That also applies to 13 November 2026. Humanity has developed differently from what was calculated 66 years ago.
So if you are now thinking you can finally tell your boss what you really think because everything will be over on Friday anyway, you might want to think again.