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Chocolate is facing a “climate barometer” as extreme weather conditions threaten the future of global cocoa crops.
The majority of cocoa(around 60 per cent) comes from West Africa, produced in humid countries such as Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, where warm temperatures and ample rainfall alternate with short dry seasons.
But over the past two years, cocoa production has plummeted by as much as 40 per cent. This has resulted in chocolate prices soaring to levels not seen since the 1970s, with experts warning of a cocoa-free world by 2050.
How climate change is threatening the chocolate industry
There are many factors pointing to chocolate’s demise. Previous reports have blamed illegal gold mining, aging trees and even cocoa smugglers – but research suggests the primary culprit is contrasting extremes of rainfall.
The Salata Institute for Climate and Sustainability at Harvard University says cocoa’s weather sensitivity is nothing new, but climate change is “amplifying the intensity of heavy rainfall events” as temperatures rise.
For every 1℃ increase in air temperature, the atmosphere is able to hold around seven per cent more moisture, which can cause more intense and heavy rainfall.
“The basic physics are straightforward: A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, amplifying the intensity of rainfall extremes,” the researchers say. “This brings waterlogging, soil erosion, and conditions that allow for fungal diseases.”
Motivated by this climate-fuelled meltdown, scientists from the National University of Singapore have now set out to find a solution.
Can scientists save the chocolate industry?
Researchers focused their attention on carob, a climate-resilient plant grown in the Mediterranean that has slowly gained attention as a promising cocoa alternative.
Unlike cocoa, carob thrives in hot, arid climates with very low water requirements, and is able to survive through droughts. After roasting, it releases a “unique aroma” that resembles cocoa – but its flavour doesn’t quite hit the spot.
To overcome the issue, the team devised two techniques to alter the plant’s flavour, using enzymes to increase bitterness and enhance sweetness.
Enzyme treatment is a straightforward and clean method that requires minimal processing, compared to other methods which involve harsh chemicals such as hydrochloric acid to enhance flavour.
By improving carob’s flavour profile, researchers say these techniques could encourage confectioners to use carob in food products that usually require cocoa, such as chocolate bars, cocoa powders, malt drinks, and other cocoa-based products.
If adopted at scale, it could “significantly reduce” the chocolate industry’s dependence on cocoa, making supply chains more resilient to climate change and crop disease outbreaks.
“Our research is not just about replicating the flavour of cocoa – it’s about diversifying the ingredients we use to make chocolate alternatives,” says Manfred Ku, first author of the research paper.
“By turning to hardy, climate-resilient crops like carob, we can help the industry adapt to environmental challenges while giving consumers a product they will enjoy.”