Mélenchon draws much of his support from working-class and immigrant communities, and his critics have condemned him for antisemitism and a “brutalization” of politics. While it would be a major coup for him to reach the second round in 2027, most polls predict he would then lose to Bardella by a landslide.
It’s an election landscape that is already bringing the French center out in a cold sweat.
“A lot of people believe that if they have to choose between the France Unbowed and the National Rally … it would be a nightmare. And I agree,” said Édouard Philippe, a conservative, who is seen as the leading mainstream candidate in the race for the Élysée.
Gérald Darmanin, justice minister under liberal President Emmanuel Macron, also warned that Mélenchon was now set to be the main challenger to the far right. “You have … to be wearing blinkers not to see it,” he said.
Shock polls
Last week, two polls shook France’s political class.
The first, conducted by Odoxa, showed Mélenchon neck-and-neck in second place after Bardella with the center-right former Prime Minister Philippe. The second poll, from Toluna-Harris Interactive, showed Mélenchon qualifying for the run-off vote against the far right if there were too many candidates running in center ground, including Philippe and another of Macron’s former prime ministers, Gabriel Attal.