Former British Prime Minister Harold Wilson’s quote stating that “a week is a long time in politics” feels particularly apt for Hungary and the United Kingdom (UK) at the moment.
Hungarian President Tamás Sulyok, widely considered a loyalist to former Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, signed an amendment to the country’s constitution on Saturday, 18 July, ending his presidency.
Meanwhile, in the UK, Keir Starmer stepped down as prime minister on Monday after months of a decline in his popularity. He was replaced by Andy Burnham, formerly the mayor of Greater Manchester.
How is the political reshuffle in Budapest being viewed by Brussels? And will Burnham continue the thaw in the EU-UK relationship?
Euronews’ weekly podcast Brussels, My Love? explores these political reshuffles with Andrea Renda, director of research at the Brussels think tank CEPS; Teresa Küchler, Svenska Dagbladet’s European correspondent; and Euronews reporter Sandor Zsiros.
The end of a yes-man
Removing the president was central to the campaign of Hungarian Prime Minister Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party ahead of the April elections. After the centre-right party won a parliamentary supermajority, the National Assembly managed to pass a constitutional amendment ending Sulyok’s term.
“Sulyok was not active at all politically during his presidency,” Euronews’ Sandor Zsiros said. “As a president, he was invisible, and this was the reason why Orbán appointed him, because he wanted an extremely weak personality who does not object to his plans.”
This was echoed by Renda: “He never challenged Orbán or the many violations of the rule of law his administration perpetrated. He was basically a yes-man. The division of powers did not work.”
The decision to remove Sulyok, a move Zsiros notes is “extremely popular” among Hungarians, was criticised by some NGOs. Human Rights Watch warned it risks halting advances to restore the rule of law, which Magyar pledged to do upon entering office.
Küchler questioned whether, in the long term, Magyar’s approach risks being seen as “too aggressive”, citing one diplomat who told her “one thing Magyar cannot do is start behaving like Orbán himself.”
Zsiros rebuffed that argument, pointing to three big differences: “He shut down the toxic propaganda, broke the extremely close ties with Russia and China and is conducting a pro-European foreign policy.
“I asked the Commission many times how it felt about the removal of the president, and there was no comment.”
Renda believes the matter is being closely watched by Brussels. “It’s very important that this is an initial bending of the rule of law, because it is seen as a one-off, and will not become a sort of stretching of the rule of law.”
The parliament has until mid-August to find a replacement. Magyar put forward world chess champion Judit Polgár, but she turned down the offer to become the next head of state.
“What Magyar wants is somebody above party politics, who represents the whole of Hungary, and somebody well-known even outside of Hungary. That’s why he proposed Polgár. […] Magyar is behaving like an influencer; he likes sensation, so I expect that he might propose somebody with a similar profile,” Zsiros said.
Renda and Küchler stressed Sulyok’s replacement should act as a type of antagonist and hold the head of government to account.
Rapprochement with EU?
This week, Brussels was also eyeing a political shuffle in the UK, where Andy Burnham became the seventh prime minister in office since 2016.
His move into 10 Downing Street comes at a time when strengthening cross-Channel ties was top of the agenda both in Brussels and London, an effort initiated by Starmer.
Hours after entering his role, Burnham spoke with European Council President António Costa and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, in which the importance of stronger EU-UK ties was underlined.
But for now, Burnham’s priorities seem to be mainly domestic.
Renda, who was in the UK on Monday, spoke with various high-level figures involved in the new administration. “They see a big emphasis on growth and on the devolution of powers towards a local level, and the reindustrialisation of areas where a lot of discontent has emerged,” he said. Those living in these de-industrialised areas were also more likely to vote “Leave” in the 2016 referendum.
“But even if Burnham’s new programme is not directly aimed at bringing the UK closer to the EU, the actual result of re-industrialising and finding new prospects for the local dimension can actually bring people closer to more inclusivity and, gradually over time, be closer to the European Union going forward.”
Küchler emphasised that the result of the referendum carries weight and should be respected, but noted that geopolitically, now is a good moment for closer ties.
“We saw how [US President] Donald Trump disrespected Keir Starmer and humiliated him on the international arena,” she said. “I think many voters in the UK right now would say, ‘This is a very good point for us to make sure that we stay on good terms with our European friends’, because it has been proven politically volatile to depend too heavily on Washington.”
For more on that, make sure you keep following Brussels, My Love?, and listen to the full episode in the player above or wherever you get your podcasts.