Tuesday’s raids were connected to a European Public Prosecutor’s Office investigation into whether the now-defunct Identity and Democracy group misused taxpayer funds when Bardella was its vice-president. POLITICO reported last year that the group breached spending rules by at least €4.3 million, according to a confidential audit.
In electoral terms, the impact of this could be limited. The National Rally is still flying high in the polls, and the French are inured to fraud scandals surrounding presidents or presidential candidates, from Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy to former Prime Minister François Bayrou. Recent surveys suggest Bardella would comfortably reach the presidential runoff and could either win or narrowly lose the race.
According to pollster Mathieu Gallard of Ipsos, previous scandals suggest the investigations are unlikely to dent the National Rally’s core support.
“It’s not that voters don’t think the National Rally is guilty, it is more that they think all parties are,” he said. “They vote for the National Rally because of its positions on immigration, identity and security.”
Still, such probes are likely to become a long-term problem for the party, raising serious questions about its working methods and professionalism during an era when party officials were working to detoxify the far right’s image and expand its voter base.
On Wednesday, Bardella led the counteroffensive against European prosecutors, accusing them of acting on political motives.