Backers of the Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham fear the West gambit could trigger a contest too soon for their man to find a route into parliament. “Anyone calling for the PM to quit but using the words ‘orderly transition’ is talking about waiting for Andy,” one of his supporters said.
The assumption is that a contest sooner would benefit expected candidates Wes Streeting, the health secretary, and Angela Rayner, the former deputy prime minister who was forced to resign from government over a tax scandal.
The former is said to be drawing up a policy program, while the latter set one out in a social media statement on Sunday night, putting Starmer on notice ahead of his speech. “This may be our last chance,” Rayner said. “The prime minister must now meet the moment and set out the change our country needs.”
But, for either to launch their own challenge, one of three things would have to happen: They would have to go over the top and attempt to force a ballot themselves, Starmer would have to resign, or 81 nominations fellow MPs would have to back West’s candidacy to trigger a formal contest.
Fight to the end
It’s not clear whether West would gain enough nominations to trigger a race on her own — and a failure to do so could mean continued stasis.
Three people who have mulled the numbers argue excluding those backing Burnham, those wanting Starmer to remain (or at least avoid the chaos of a leadership contest) and frontbenchers unwilling to resign to support a stalking horse, she could have no path to the 81 nominations. In her BBC interview, West declined to spell out whether she thought she had the numbers.