If Bolojan loses the vote he will be out as prime minister. Independent centrist President Nicușor Dan will then begin consultations with party leaders to form a new coalition government, with a new prime minister.
In that case, one possibility is that the coalition between Bolojan’s liberals and the social democrats carries on but with a new, independent technocratic prime minister — an option some analysts and commentators view as likely.
The PSD has already said it is open to continuing the coalition with a different prime minister in charge. But the bad blood from this crisis — the two main ruling parties have traded insults — could make it difficult to patch things up.
The other option is that Bolojan wins the vote. In that case, either the PSD would have to eat humble pie or, more likely, Bolojan would continue to lead a minority government, forcing the PSD into opposition alongside Simion’s nationalists. Some suspect this was Bolojan’s plan all along, according to Pîrvulescu.
Will Simion gain power?
Simion was cautious about the possibility of taking the role of prime minister when POLITICO asked him last week, but he didn’t rule it out. On paper, however, this appears impossible at the moment, not least because Dan has said he won’t consent to appointing anti-European parties (read AUR) to the government.
Simion’s best bet remains to win power in future elections — either in the parliamentary contest set for 2028 or in the presidential vote expected in 2030. An early snap election is widely seen as unlikely.