Scenario 2 — Act as a spoiler
Trump could also choose to make life difficult for allies inside NATO without going in all guns blazing.
That’s already happening in a limited way. The U.S. has exploited the fact that all policy documents in NATO working committees are approved unanimously to block reports on softer issues like climate change and human security, sometimes alongside other allies, two NATO diplomats said. Work on the latter topic has effectively “gone to zero,” one of the diplomats said.
Overall, “the U.S. still has a solid team, they participate in committees … they negotiate,” the same diplomat argued, but added that Washington could do more damage if it wanted to by bringing work to a halt in more central committees such as those dealing with Ukraine and Russia.
The U.S. could also refuse to pay its dues to NATO’s common budget covering things like operating expenses. (It currently pays around €800,000, or 15 percent of the total.) But while that would be “disruptive,” Niehus said, “it would not be the end of the world” for other allies to replace that contribution.
Some inside the Trump administration are reportedly considering imposing a “pay-for-play” model on NATO that would block allies who don’t meet their spending targets from having a voice on joint missions and triggering Article 5. While there is “no mechanism” to enforce that strategy, Niehus said, Trump could still achieve it via political pressure.
Speaking on behalf of the organization, a NATO official told POLITICO: “We don’t comment on the details of deliberations among Allies. Discussions in committee are an essential part of NATO’s daily work in which all Allies are regularly engaged.”