European capitals are watching these midterms closely — but are under no illusions that a Democrat-led Congress could reverse the new world order shaped by President Donald Trump.
The MAGA movement has few friends among European governments, given Trump’s backpedaling on support for Ukraine and NATO. The president’s war in Iran has caused economic chaos across the continent and his frequent browbeating of European leaders is a headache they could do without.
So Europe will be watching for two things tonight — firstly, an election that leaves Trump so weakened at home that he’s somehow more stymied abroad. This feels optimistic: Foreign affairs remain the White House’s prerogative whichever party controls Congress, and history shows that presidents tend to have an even greater overseas focus in their final years in office.
Second, European leaders will be watching for any hint of the direction the U.S. might be headed in 2028. Any prospect of a 48th president with a more traditional American view of the world — embracing NATO, Europe and free trade — would be warmly welcomed.
But more important still would be any sign that the MAGA movement itself is on the wane. Europe knows full well from the Joe Biden presidency that any reversion to a more conventional president is only going to be temporary for as long as the Republican Party remains of a MAGA mindset.