Ukraine must do everything to make sure the end of the war does not mean “the end of Ukraine”, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Friday, admitting that the country is currently undergoing “one of the most difficult moments in our history”.
“The pressure on Ukraine is now one of the most severe”, he stated. Referring to the 28-point plan drafted by the US and Russia, Zelenskyy said he will fight to “ensure that at least two points are not overlooked in the plan.”
“These are the dignity and freedom of Ukrainians, because everything else is based on this,” he pointed out.
Zelenskyy emphasised the country “may now face a very difficult choice: either loss of dignity, or the risk of losing a key partner.”
“Either 28 difficult points, or an extremely harsh winter, the most difficult one yet, and further risks,” he said. “A life without freedom, without dignity, without justice. And we are expected to trust someone who has attacked us twice already.”
The US and Russia are pressing Kyiv with a new draft for ending Moscow’s war against Ukraine.
The framework, reportedly approved by US President Donald Trump earlier this week, includes numerous concessions from Ukraine and hardly any from Russia.
Russia wants Ukraine to cede territory
According to the leaked plan, Russia demands Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk to be “as de facto Russian, including by the United States”.
It is unclear if Washington agreed to this demand as well because the draft includes Moscow’s demands of “international recognition of all of Ukraine’s Donetsk region as territory belonging to the Russian Federation.”
Russia wants Ukraine to withdraw its forces from the Donetsk region and says this “withdrawal zone” will be considered a “neutral demilitarised buffer zone, internationally recognised as territory belonging to Russia.” Russian forces would not enter this zone, according to the plan.
Russia has been trying to occupy all of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions – known together as Donbas – since its first invasion of 2014. Until now, Moscow’s troops have not fully controlled these areas.
The Kremlin would in return agree to a ceasefire in the regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia along the current contact line.
Kherson city was the only regional capital Russia managed to briefly occupy in 2022. Ukrainian forces liberated the city eight months later and pushed Moscow’s troops across the Dnipro to the left bank. Since autumn 2022 the contact line has hardly moved here.
In the Zaporizhzhia region, the contact line has not changed much until recently, when Russia renewed its assault in eastern Zaporizhzhia.
Ukraine together with the EU and previously the US, suggested freezing the fighting at the current contact line across all of Ukraine’s frontlines and only after the ceasefire to have further negotiations.
The Kremlin also wants Ukraine to scale down its military force to 600,000 personnel, with European fighter jets stationed in neighbouring Poland, as well as plans for Ukraine to forgo many of its weapons.
Russia ‘expected’ not to invade neighbouring countries
The leaked plan also includes rather vague indications that Moscow will not invade other countries, apart from Ukraine.
“It is expected that Russia will not invade neighbouring countries”.
“Russia will enshrine in law its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine”.
In return Moscow demands NATO “not to expand further” and “not to station troops in Ukraine”.
Moreover, Russia wants Ukraine to agree “to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO” and the alliance “to include in its statutes a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future”.
Seems like it is only Ukraine’s NATO aspirations which Russia strongly protests against.
Finland and Sweden both joined the defence alliance after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine without any comment from Moscow.
The Kremlin also wants the US to mediate a “dialog” between Moscow and NATO “to resolve all security issues and create conditions for de-escalation in order to ensure global security and increase opportunities for cooperation and future economic development.”
Russia wants to be back in the global arena
The leaked plan clearly states that Russia wants to be “reintegrated into the global economy” with the sanction lifting to be “discussed and agreed upon in stages and on a case-by-case basis”.
Moscow’s renewed push for negotiations with the US is largely driven by the tough sanctions imposed by Washington on its oil giants Lukoil and Rosneft in October.
The Kremlin says it wants the US to “enter into a long-term economic cooperation agreement for mutual development in the areas of energy, natural resources, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, data centres, rare earth metal extraction projects in the Arctic, and other mutually beneficial corporate opportunities”.
On top of that Moscow wants to be invited back to the G8. Russia was expelled in 2014 after the annexation of Crimea.
The draft also includes several points regarding Russia’s accountability and responsibility for its actions in Ukraine and beyond.
“All parties involved in this conflict will receive full amnesty for their actions during the war and agree not to make any claims or consider any complaints in the future”, the draft framework suggests.
This would mean that Moscow’s troops will not be held accountable for the atrocities committed in Ukraine against the soldiers and the civilians.
Moscow also demands “a comprehensive non-aggression agreement” to be concluded not only with Ukraine, but also with Europe. “All ambiguities of the last 30 years will be considered settled.”
This could possibly include Russia’s actions in Moldova, another EU membership candidate, where Moscow-backed separatists have been occupying and controlling Transnistria since the early 90s.