This article was originally published in Portuguese

Prime Minister Luís Montenegro is engulfed in a political scandal over his family’s business activities. He is expected to lose a confidence vote on Tuesday, paving the way for yet another national vote.

Portugal has once again been plunged into political crisis.

Prime Minister Luís Montenegro, who leads the Democratic Alliance (AD), is currently embroiled in a scandal over an alleged conflict of interest involving his family’s business.

Montenegro, who denies the allegation, called a confidence motion last week, saying he wanted to “to end the atmosphere of permanent insinuations and intrigues”.

However, his centre-right government is set to lose Tuesday’s confidence vote, after the two other main parties — the Socialist party (PS) and the far-right Chega party — said they would not support him.

If this happens, the country will have its third snap election since 2022, with President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa saying a ballot could be held in mid-May.

Montenegro narrowly won elections last March, just ahead of the PS, which only has two fewer seats than the AD platform in parliament.

How did we get here?

The accusations against Montenegro concern the data protection company Spinumviva, which he founded in 2021.

The prime minister was the firm’s managing partner and largest share holder, but he left a month after being elected president of the Social Democratic party (PSD) in 2022.

Ownership was transferred to his wife and two children.

The firm recently became headline news after it emerged that it had received €4,500 per month from a group of casinos that has a government gambling concession.

Montenegro’s critics also allege that Spinumviva, whose main activity is consultancy but which has other interests, could benefit from a new land law.

The prime minister denies this charge.

Meanwhile, the Attorney General’s Office has confirmed that it is looking into an anonymous complaint against Montenegro, and the SP has called for a parliamentary inquiry into the allegations.

Doors to May elections wide open

The decision to dissolve the Assembly of the Republic and call new elections rests with the President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa.

Last week, he said he wanted to “wait for the debate and vote on the motion of confidence”.

But he noted that if the government falls, “the earliest possible date” for the country to go to the polls is 11 May.

Tuesday’s confidence motion comes one year and one day after the country’s last elections.

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