The war in Iran has sent energy and fuel prices through the roof, but another interesting trend, which could in fact benefit travellers, has developed.
According to analysis by flight comparison website FlightsFinder.com, certain budget airlines appear to have slashed their fares by 10 to 30%, namely Ryanair, WizzAir and EasyJet.
“Our fare history shows a steady decrease in price over the last few months”, founder Shahab Siddiqui told Europe in Motion. For example, “routes from the UK to European destinations like Nice, Palma, and Barcelona have dropped by 10% to 30%.”
According to experts, slashing prices is part of certain airlines’ strategy to make travel as appealing as possible to potential customers, in a bid to mitigate weak demand and wider economic losses which the industry currently faces.
Such cut prices are achievable through fuel hedging —allowing airlines to fix or cap fuel prices over a designated time period. However, these competitive prices will not necessarily be sustainable long-term, warned Siddiqui.
“These agreements are set to expire in the latter half of this year, which is expected to trigger a universal price surge across all intra-European routes.”
How much is the war in Iran pushing flight prices up?
Despite the fact that some holidaymakers travelling inside Europe may still be able to find cheap tickets, those travelling further afield will likely not have the same luck, given that destinations outside Europe have been more heavily impacted by disruptions and fuel price surges driven by the conflict in the Middle East.
Key corridors between Asia and Europe have been especially affected, with prices increasing by nearly 300% in recent weeks, as FlightFinder’s research shows.
The London-Singapore route saw one of the steepest increases, with average fares jumping from around €600 to almost €1,800. A similar spike of 273% was recorded for trips from London to Bangkok.
However, some of the most expensive tickets at the moment are for the Frankfurt-Singapore and Paris-Bangkok routes, where a round trip currently sells for around €2,800.
While some airlines have boosted fares, others have cancelled flights altogether, with KLM pulling 50 flights due to operational costs, according to FlightFinder.
Other airlines are trying to offset higher costs with markups: Air France and Lufthansa have introduced a €10 surcharge on all medium to long haul routes, reports FlightFinder.
Which airlines are re-routing flights, and where to?
As flying over the usual super-connector hubs of Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Doha gets riskier, some carriers are diverting to Istanbul and Cairo instead, or even to Ethiopia, for destinations in the Indian Ocean like Seychelles.
“Passengers are actively being rebooked onto Turkish Airlines as a result of partner alliances to stop over in Istanbul and bypass the Gulf states,” states FlightsFinder’s report.
Other airlines — such as British Airways and Cathay Pacific — have increased the number of direct routes to Asia, bypassing the Gulf stopover entirely, adding an extra weekly direct flight to Bangkok and Singapore.
What should travellers do to minimise time and money losses?
FlightFinder warns that long-haul flyers should expect trips to take an estimated one to four hours longer than usual, given that routes which were typically direct, now incorporating stops due to refuelling or rerouting needs.
In light of this, travel experts suggest leaving a layover window of at least three hours, “as route congestion can knock schedules out of sync.”
Experts also advise booking flexible tickets in order to minimise disruption, as well as claiming refunds should the route be severely disrupted.
Do you automatically get a refund on extra-European flights?
No. Unlike in the EU, or countries like the US and the UK, refunds are not always guaranteed, globally.
Passengers should check the country’s specific laws and the airline’s policies in case of disruption before travelling.
Another recommendation is to fly as light as possible.
Baggage handling systems are under increasing strain as flights are being unexpectedly rerouted and redirected through alternate hubs.
“If you do have luggage, place a smart GPS tracker like Apple AirTag inside it so you can locate it if it gets lost due to a chaotic connection”, recommends FlightsFinder.