François Bayrou

French Prime Minister François Bayrou may be the first to pay for Le Pen’s downfall. The centrist Macron ally has been trying to woo both National Rally and moderate left lawmakers to keep his minority government afloat.

Since Bayrou came to power in December, after the far right ousted his predecessor, the National Rally has held back from toppling the government. Ahead of the Le Pen verdict the far right was already raising the stakes.

“It’s a rodeo and the prime minister is trying to stay on as long as possible, but there’s no leadership,” said a National Rally heavyweight, who was granted anonymity to discuss party strategy. The person said National Rally lawmakers were not looking for “excuses” to topple the government but would do so if there were “elements” that were “serious enough.”

Bayrou is also treading carefully because he too has faced a trial on accusations he and his party embezzled European Parliament funds for party activities, though on a much smaller scale. He was acquitted last year, but his party and several of its members were found guilty. The prosecution, however, has appealed and a new trial is expected.

Jury’s still out

Edouard Philippe

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