Europe is expected to produce at least one serious contender, but candidates from wealthy countries will face scrutiny over the unequal distribution of vaccines during the Covid-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, possible candidates from Asia and the Gulf reflect the growing financial and diplomatic influence those regions wield in global health. China is unlikely to field a candidate of its own, but Beijing’s diplomatic reach across the developing world could make it a decisive power broker.
Adding to the uncertainty is the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the WHO earlier this year. Unlike in previous races, when the United States held disproportionate sway as the agency’s biggest funder, this contest will play out without Washington formally at the table — though many countries will still be watching for signs of whom it might favor.
Some countries would “likely consider U.S. preferences in whom they support, but not all countries necessarily want the U.S. back in the WHO,” said Suerie Moon, a professor at the Graduate Institute in Geneva.
POLITICO spoke with 15 global health experts and officials, including delegates at the World Health Assembly in Geneva last month, to find out which names are circulating and how they might fare.
Gulf states: Growing influence but risk of splitting support
Two of the most discussed potential candidates come from the Gulf, a region whose financial and diplomatic influence in global health has expanded significantly over the past decade.
Saudi Arabia’s Hanan Balkhy appears particularly well-positioned. Since becoming regional director for WHO’s Eastern Mediterranean office in 2024, she has built a reputation as a capable operator, described by one global health expert as “ultracompetent and level-headed.” She has become one of the organization’s most visible leaders during conflicts in Gaza and Iran, calling for ceasefires and warning of nuclear disaster if conflict continues to escalate.