But even if the political will can be found, Germany’s formidable bureaucracy — not known for its swift responses — might still stand in the way. The leader of the federal body that oversees elections reportedly warned in a letter to Scholz that an election in the first two months of 2025 would lead to “incalculable risks.” Practical impediments, the official wrote, included procuring enough paper and adequate printing services.
Who will win?
Merz’s CDU and their conservative Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), are currently leading in polls by a wide margin, on 32 percent support, and will likely lead any future coalition government. Scholz’s SPD, on the other hand, is polling third on 16 percent, just behind the far-right AfD.
Because the CDU has vowed not to form a federal coalition with the AfD, it is almost certain to form a coalition with Scholz’s SPD (which, by then, may well have a new leader at the top of its ticket — possibly this guy). Based on current polling and the country’s political fragmentation, the conservatives and the SPD may need a third party with which to govern.
The two main contenders are familiar suspects that wouldn’t be a great fit. The Greens —currently polling at 10 percent — have become a favorite target of the conservatives for their policies on immigration and the climate. The FDP would be a better match for the conservatives, but not so much for the SPD, for obvious reasons. Besides, the FDP is now polling at 4 percent — below the threshold needed to make it into parliament — so they may not be an option anyway.
However things shake out, in other words, the next coalition may be just as fractious as the last one.
Does any of this matter?
This is a question we often ask ourselves. As Germany’s leaders squabble over when to hold a confidence vote, some 50,000 Russian and North Korean troops appear to be preparing to launch an assault on Ukrainian forces in Russia’s Kursk region, while Russian forces continue to make advances along the front in Ukraine.
