One way of addressing this anxiety would be through a European-centered deterrence strategy, which seeks to assuage these fears without unnecessarily provoking Russia. After all, Russian security elites worry far more about U.S. troops on their borders than they do about European units. And having signaled their interest, France and Germany are now moving in this direction — albeit slowly.
The German army brigade to be permanently stationed in Lithuania in a few years’ time is one example of this, and it would help “lessen our fears,” renowned Lithuanian security expert Margarita Šešelgytė told me. And while France’s increasing presence in the region is also cause for optimism, for any real change in Europe’s defense posture along its eastern borders, there remains significant work to be done.
For instance, deploying one brigade, even a “robust” one, in the words of German Minister of Defense Boris Pistorius, would be a useful tripwire to ensure a Russian attack would automatically trigger a NATO response. This wouldn’t necessarily be all that impressive in military terms, but since there is, in fact, very little risk of Russia invading the Baltics or Poland and ensuring a disastrous war with NATO, a small European force could reassure eastern allies without angering Moscow the way a U.S. force would.
Furthermore, enhancing European-led deterrence in Central and Eastern Europe is something the U.S. should encourage and support as well. It would not only alleviate the burden on American troops and financial resources, but it would encourage Europeans to reinvigorate their armed forces and play a more serious role in the Continent’s security too.
Alongside an increased military presence, Europeans also need to establish joined-up military production. At present, Europe can’t even produce the million artillery shells it promised to deliver Ukraine by March. Therefore, enhancing production in a Pan-European manner would better position it for any future crisis or conflict, while offering reassurance to its eastern allies as well. The EU already has existing mechanisms, such as Permanent Structured Cooperation and the European Defense Fund, which should help boost such development. And in this case too, strengthened defense capability could lessen Western Europe’s fear of Russia, thereby encouraging a willingness to seek reasonable compromises with Moscow.
Having the luxury of relying on America, many European countries have viewed security almost as an afterthought since the end of the Cold War. But several of the experts I spoke to stressed that with Washington’s future strategic commitment uncertain, it’s now high time Europe starts doing much more for its own defense. Moreover, given the very widespread, and justified, feeling in the U.S. that Europeans are “free riding” on their military spending — as even former President Barack Obama noted — this is a necessary step if any U.S. presence and support is to be guaranteed in the long term.