With Russia shifting to a war economy and allocating nearly 30 percent of its annual budget to arm itself, it’s time for all NATO members to aim to spend 3 percent of their GDP on defense, Duda said.
Dearlove believes this increase in defense spending is also necessary “Trump-proofing.” “If [former U.S. President Donald] Trump comes to power, by the time he does, most NATO members will either be on track or above spending 2 percent of their GDP on defense,” he said. And that should help cope with having another term of the long-standing NATO critic in the White House.
“It’s quite different from the situation the first time round. I approve of what Trump did in calling out NATO in his first term, and particularly the Germans. If the Germans really start spending seriously on rearming — which they should be doing because of the size of their economy — that would be totally transformative,” he said.
Yet Dearlove, who ran MI6 between 1999 and 2004, is ambivalent about Trump, who complains that NATO’s European members aren’t paying their way, and has gone so far as to threaten pulling out of the partnership. Dearlove recently told British broadcaster Sky News that Trump’s reelection would be “problematic” due to his issues with NATO, and that if the former U.S. president acted hastily, it could cause a lot of damage, including to Britain’s security.
Although Dearlove did note that Trump seems to like Britain — unlike sitting President Joe Biden — and there may be a chance for the U.K. to secure a trade deal with him in the White House. “Trump emotionally quite likes the U.K. He likes it more than Biden does. I mean, Biden is an old-fashioned American Irish Catholic with all the prejudices that Irish Catholics have about England,” he said.
He also told POLITICO that “there’s quite a lot going on behind the scenes” in terms of “people talking to [Trump’s] national security people,” getting them to understand the importance of NATO. “I don’t think it’s a lost cause,” he added.
There’s one thing he does definitely like about Trump though — his unpredictability. “The principle of deterrence really is based on uncertainty and not [being able to] guess what your opponent is going to do. And I mean, in terms of guessing what Trump’s going to do, he has a deterrent effect because you can never be sure what he’s going to do next,” Dearlove said.
That can be of great benefit when dealing with foes, of course. The problem is when you treat friends in the same unpredictable way.