LONDON — Donald Trump has launched a crusade to convert European politics to his cause, mobilizing the full force of American diplomacy to promote “patriotic” parties, stamp on migration, destroy “censorship” and save “civilization” from decay.
The question is whether Europe’s embattled centrists have the power, or the will, to stop him.
In its newly released National Security Strategy document, the White House set out for the first time in a comprehensive form its approach to the geopolitical challenges facing the U.S. and the world.
While bringing peace to Ukraine gets a mention, when it comes to Europe, America’s official stance is now that its security depends on shifting the continent’s politics decisively to the right.
Over the course of three pages, the document blames the European Union, among others, for raising the risk of “civilizational erasure,” due to a surge in immigrants, slumping birth rates and the purported erosion of democratic freedoms.
“Should present trends continue, the continent will be unrecognizable in 20 years or less,” it says. “As such, it is far from obvious whether certain European countries will have economies and militaries strong enough to remain reliable allies.”
With its talk of birth rates declining and immigration rising, the racial dimension to the White House rhetoric is hard to ignore. It will be familiar to voters in Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands and Germany, where far-right politicians have articulated the so-called “great replacement theory,” a racist conspiracy theory falsely asserting that elites are part of a plot to dilute the white population and diminish its influence. “We want Europe to remain European,” the document says.
“Over the long term, it is more than plausible that within a few decades at the latest, certain NATO members will become majority non-European,” the document reads — making it “an open question” whether such countries will continue to view an alliance with the U.S. as desirable.
The policy prescription that follows is, in essence, regime change. “Our goal should be to help Europe correct its current trajectory,” the strategy document says. That will involve “cultivating resistance” within European nations. In case there is any doubt about the political nature of the message, the White House paper celebrates “the growing influence of patriotic European parties” as a cause for American optimism.
In other words: Back the far right to make Europe great again.
Fighting shy
Since Trump returned to the White House in January, European leaders have kept up a remarkable performance of remaining calm amid his provocations, so far avoiding an open conflict that would sever transatlantic relations entirely.
But for centrist leaders currently in power — like Emmanuel Macron in Paris, Keir Starmer in London and Germany’s Friedrich Merz — the new Trump doctrine poses a challenge so existential that they may be forced to confront it head-on.
That confrontation could come sooner rather than later, with high-stakes elections in parts of Britain and Germany next year and the possibility of a snap national vote ever-present in France. In each case, MAGA-aligned parties — Reform U.K., the Alternative for Germany and the National Rally — are poised to make gains at the expense of establishment centrists currently in power. America, it is now clear, may well intervene to help.
On current evidence, European officials whose job it is to protect their elections from foreign interference have little appetite for a fight with Trump.
The European Commission recently unveiled its plans for a “democracy shield” to protect elections from disinformation and foreign interference. Michael McGrath, the commissioner responsible for the policy, told POLITICO recently that the shield should be drawn widely as Russia is “not the only actor” that may have “a vested interest” in influencing elections. “There are many actors who would like to damage the fabric of the EU, and ultimately undermine trust in its institutions,” he said.
In light of the new National Security Strategy, Trump’s America must now surely count among them.
But McGrath played the diplomat when asked, before the strategy was published, if he would rather U.S. leaders stopped campaigning in European elections and criticizing European democracy.
“They’re entitled to their views, but we have our own standards and we seek to apply our own values and the European approach to international affairs and international diplomacy,” McGrath replied. “We don’t comment or interfere on the domestic matters of a close partner like the United States.”
Pathetic freeloaders
Even before the strategy was published, Trump administration figures had already provided ample evidence of its disdain for Europe’s political center ground. So far this year, Vice President JD Vance launched a broadside against Europe over free speech and democracy; Elon Musk intervened in the German election to back the far-right Alternative for Germany; and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth privately savaged “pathetic” Europeans for “freeloading” on security.
The difference this time is that Trump’s National Security Strategy is official. “It was one thing for them to think it and say it to each other (or in a speech in Munich),” said one EU diplomat, granted anonymity to speak candidly. “It’s something else to put it into a policy document.”
What is worse for leaders like Macron, Merz and Starmer is that the Trumpian analysis — that a critical mass of voters want their own European MAGA — may, ultimately, be right.
These leaders are all under immense pressure from the populist right in their own backyards. In Britain, Nigel Farage’s Reform U.K. is on track to make major gains at next year’s regional and local elections, potentially triggering a leadership challenge in the governing Labour Party that could force Starmer out.
In Paris, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally tortures Macron’s struggling administrators in parliament, while the Alternative for Germany breathes down Merz’s neck in Berlin and pushes him to take ever harder positions on migration.
The British prime minister disclosed in an interview with The Economist this week that he spoke to Merz and Macron at a recent private dinner in Berlin about the shared threat they all face from the right. “We are facing the same challenges, or versions of the same challenges, and we do talk about it,” Starmer said.
If America makes good on Trump’s new strategy, private dinner party chats among friends may not be enough.