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The era of Chair Warsh begins in earnest this Wednesday, as US President Donald Trump’s pick to run the Fed presides over his debut rate decision and steps before the cameras for his first press conference in the role.
Few economists anticipate dramatic action on day one, but the meeting carries unusual weight for what it might reveal about the months ahead.
Policymakers are expected to hold the benchmark rate steady at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75%, which would mark the fourth consecutive meeting without a move. The committee cut 25 basis points in December 2025.
The bigger question is the language, with officials potentially revising their post-meeting statement to drop any hint that the next step will be a reduction, signalling instead that rates may stay elevated for some time, or even rise should inflation prove sticky.
Warsh inherits a far less accommodating picture than the one he faced when he was widely seen as campaigning for the job last year.
At that time, he argued forcefully for lower rates, echoing US President Donald Trump’s demands, and pointed to AI as a force that could expand the economy’s productive capacity and tame prices over time.
Many economists doubted that thesis even then, noting that the surge of investment in semiconductors and computing equipment was adding to inflationary pressure rather than easing it.
A changed economic backdrop
Inflation has indeed accelerated since the outbreak of the Iran war in late February, climbing to a three-year high of 4.2%, driven largely by costlier petrol.
US President Donald Trump has announced a framework for a peace deal that could end the conflict, but it is unclear whether the truce will hold, and prices for fuel, groceries and airfares could take months to cool even if Middle Eastern oil flows freely again.
By the Fed’s preferred gauge, inflation has now run above its 2% target for more than five years. Hiring, meanwhile, has remained resilient.
May brought 172,000 new jobs, a third straight month of solid gains, removing much of the rationale for the two rate cuts the Fed had pencilled into its January projections.
Because the rate itself looks settled, attention turns to the Fed’s updated Summary of Economic Projections and its closely watched “dot plot”, the quarterly projection of future interest rates.
According to Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave, the new dot plot could show the Fed keeping rates on hold for the rest of 2026, with at least three of the committee’s 12 voting members potentially pencilling in rate hikes this year.
Communication is the other wildcard. Warsh has argued that the central bank should speak less often and keep a lower profile, on the view that publicly stated positions can trap policymakers into defending them well past their usefulness.
One option would be to thin out the calendar of press conferences, reverting to the every-other-meeting rhythm favoured by Ben Bernanke, who chaired the Fed from 2006 to 2014, when the format was introduced. Leaner guidance, however, risks unsettling markets long accustomed to clear direction.
Adding intrigue, predecessor Jerome Powell remains on the board as a governor, a seat he can hold until January 2028, and is expected to vote on Wednesday’s decision, denying the Trump administration an additional vacancy to fill.
Additional sources • AP