However, polling from the European Council on Foreign Relations also suggests many Europeans doubt the bloc’s capacity to act sufficiently quickly. Citizens support higher military spending, conscription, independent deterrents and defending Ukraine — even without U.S. backing. But they also question whether their leaders can deliver.
Societal resolve requires trust that goes both ways: If political leaders have an overly pessimistic outlook of the future and don’t trust that their citizens will meaningfully contribute, they’ll have a harder time inspiring trust in their ability to lead.
Europe’s population is ahead of its politicians here — and it’s not only the polls that show it.
For one, Sweden and Finland joining NATO is a clear demonstration of this. After Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale war on Ukraine began in 2022, the leaders of both countries still hesitated, bound by old narratives. But public opinion flipped in favor of joining NATO within a matter of days.
Then, after Trump’s reelection, Swedes and Finns pivoted again. By 2025, majorities in Finland and Sweden no longer trusted Washington to defend the continent if it were attacked — long before their governments acknowledged the reality. Instead, the political leadership in Stockholm and Helsinki had a hard time finding the right words to admit that the U.S. wasn’t a partner they could trust.
The truth is, when it comes to EU integration, most centrist politicians are still driven by fear of the far right. They don’t seem to have fully grasped that the game has changed — for everyone. Putin and Trump’s imperialism have unmasked populist discourses on nationalist sovereignty and defense as a fantasy. The far left’s claim that dialogue could secure peace with Moscow has similarly been discredited. And it has also become obvious to voters that the center’s lukewarm Europeanism hasn’t delivered on the promise of a strong union that can defend its economy or regulatory sovereignty, from climate to tech.
