“This was a bad summer for Europe,” said Bas Eickhout, co-chair of the Greens in the Parliament, a different political group from von der Leyen but one that voted her into office. “What we clearly want as a message from the president of the Commission is that things need to change.”
Barely 10 months into her second period at the helm, von der Leyen is under severe pressure ― from the democratically elected Parliament, from within the broader EU setup, and from global events. Political groups that for decades have been friendly toward center-right Commission presidents are now questioning those allegiances. Surging right-wing forces are demanding tougher policies on issues from migration to the environment, and see the EU as a convenient punching bag. The leaders of the U.S. and Russia have disturbed much that once seemed certain about Europe’s place in the world.
“We expect clear leadership from the executive,” Valérie Hayer, chief of the liberal Renew Europe group, told POLITICO. “Europe cannot afford institutional stagnation or standstill.”
It’s that apparent lack of leadership that has dismayed politicians from all sides and it’s why they’re ready to pounce on von der Leyen personally. Among members of the Commission and the Parliament, wounds are still fresh from a motion of no-confidence in von der Leyen in July. Groups at the more extreme ends of the political spectrum are already plotting another as soon as October ― an unprecedented show of opposition to a Commission president.
High tension and political polarization
While the State of the EU speech is often seen in Brussels as a rather mundane kickoff to the political season ― high on hyperbole and ceremony and low on tangible plans as the Commission president brags about the achievements of the past 12 months and issues big promises for the next ― there’s an undercurrent this year that will add significant frisson.
“I don’t think the Commission is scared,” said a well-positioned Commission official, speaking under condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of internal discussions. “But for sure there is awareness of the political tensions in Parliament and the discontent of political groups, including within the von der Leyen majority, towards some of the Commission’s actions and policies.”