“The most natural outcome would be to have a right-wing majority” when agreeing the new regulation on deportations, said Dutch MEP Marieke Ehlers, a leading member of the Patriots for Europe group working on that law.
“If the EPP were to work with the left on this file, they would end up with a proposal that is weaker than what their own commissioner has proposed, so I don’t really see how they would sell that to their voters,” she added.
But while von der Leyen might find some marriages of convenience on environmental themes and immigration with the far right, she would find it almost impossible to build a workable legislative agenda with such fractured and disparate right-wing parties. Some, for example, are pro-Russian, others anti-Russian.
“They find it very hard to agree. That, in turn, means they are an unreliable partner for the EPP as a permanent coalition,” said Richard Corbett, a former British MEP and adviser to the European Council president.
German sensitivities
Von der Leyen also has particular sensitivities as a German centrist politician, highly conscious of coming from a country shaped by its Nazi past, about coordinating legislation with extremist nationalist parties. If she were to rely on the right, she would often find herself allying with politicians who are pro-Kremlin, anti-Ukraine, anti-LGBTQ+, anti-abortion and Euroskeptic — all anathema to her essential beliefs.
While there is probably more room to cooperate with the European Conservatives and Reformists, dominated by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, it would be far harder to see von der Leyen making regular common cause with the Patriots, whose big names include Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and France’s Marine Le Pen. And any frequent coordination with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the Europe of Sovereign Nations grouping would prove especially tricky — although the EPP has already flirted with that option.
