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The Trump administration has begun working on a post-war strategy for the Middle East, aimed and reshaping the balance of power in the region by tightening pressure on Tehran and expanding normalisation between Israel and neighbouring countries, Axios reported, citing two US officials and two other sources familiar with the matter.
The US outlet said that the plan remains in its early stages but that it could set out US policy towards the Middle East for the remainder of US President Donald Trump’s time in the White House.
The unnamed sources told Axios that three key pillars had been discussed as part of the plan – building “regional alignment” among US allies to deter and constrain Iran, working to wind down the regional consequences of the 7 October 2023 attacks on Israel, and broadening the Abraham Accords while pursuing normalisation of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Discussions over the plan, which are likely to be impacted by the US’ upcoming midterm elections as well as Israel’s October legislative elections, have also looked at the possibility of the US acting as a guarantor for the so-called regional alignment, working towards a security agreement between Israel and Syria, and implementing the next part of Trump’s Gaza plan.
The regional alignment strategy would not represent a major shift in US policy, as successive administrations since the 1979 Iranian Revolution have sought to curb Tehran’s regional influence by strengthening relations and alliances with Gulf states.
But Washington may seek to turn these efforts into a more structured framework that includes closer defence and security coordination among allies, against the backdrop of what the US sees as a shift in the regional balance of power amid the Iran war.
A push for a normalisation agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel is a goal Washington has been pursuing for years but which has stalled as Riyadh has tied any move in such a direction to tangible progress towards resolving the situation in Gaza and the creation of a Palestinian state.
These efforts build on the “Abraham Accords” agreed to in 2020 under Trump’s first administration, which normalised relations between Israel on the one hand and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan on the other.
Since then, Washington has worked to widen the circle of countries joining these accords, seeing them as one of the tools for reshaping relations and alliances in the Middle East and reducing the influence of Iran and its allies in the region.
The other pillar, which focuses on addressing the regional repercussions of the Hamas militant group’s 7 October attack and the ensuing war in the Gaza Strip, could see the issue tackled in three main ways.
Firstly, moving to the next phase of Trump’s plan for Gaza, which, according to previous reports, includes arrangements for the reconstruction of the Strip, the disarmament of Hamas and the establishment of a transitional administration.
The second could be an effort to reach a security agreement between Israel and Syria, which would come amid sweeping political changes in Syria since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime at the end of 2024 – as well as new authorities’ attempts to recast the country’s regional and international relations.
And thirdly, implementing an agreement between Israel and Lebanon that would limit Hezbollah’s military capabilities. This comes as part of efforts linked to the ceasefire deal reached by Israel and the group in 2024, which provided for the withdrawal of Hezbollah fighters to north of the Litani River and the deployment of the Lebanese army in the south of the country.
Israel has since accused Hezbollah of trying to rebuild its military capabilities, however, while Lebanon has continued to report Israeli air strikes on its territory.
A final plan has yet to take shape
While the planning continues, one of the sources told Axios that it had not yet fully come together.
“They are cooking it, but it is not yet cooked,” they said, adding: “The idea is to tie a whole lot of things in the region together — how you create a regional alignment after the war. It is still unclearif all U.S. allies in the region will be on board.”