Several projections, including by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, suggest that not only could this coming El Niño reach 2C, but it may far exceed that threshold.
The most recent El Niño, in 2023, ranked among the five strongest on record and helped turn 2024 into the world’s hottest year. WMO experts already warned last week that the next such event may see 2027 break global temperature records once again.
However, the WMO stressed on Tuesday that the strength and peak of this El Niño are as yet uncertain.
“We will speak about moderate or strong when we are sure about that,” said Saulo. “There are models that are not providing any indication of a strong El Niño, while others are doing so.”
Though El Niño tends to drive up temperatures worldwide, with the most pronounced warming effect occurring in the year after its emergence, the regional impacts vary. For Europe, effects are difficult to predict due to the continent’s distance from the Pacific.
In the southern United States, as well as parts of southern Latin America, the Horn of Africa and Central Asia, the event brings more rainfall, risking floods and landslides, said the WMO. In contrast, Australia, other parts of Latin America, the Caribbean, Southern Asia and Indonesia often face drier conditions.
But, said Saulo, if countries prepare accordingly and ensure early warning systems are in place, “El Niño does not have to be a recipe for disaster.”