However, regardless of Europe’s efforts to support Ukraine, the only thing that really matters is America’s security guarantees, which Zelenskyy must now secure — even if it means concessions elsewhere.
As much as Europe may like to think otherwise, Washington’s guarantees are the only viable path to peace for Ukraine. Europe can’t even deploy its multinational force without U.S. logistical support. And as 2025 draws to a close, the question of Washington’s commitment remains a fundamental factor in efforts to move Russia’s war toward its next phase and, hopefully, a durable peace.
Yet, everything suggests real power lies in Russia’s hands.
Ukraine’s collective memory of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum’s failures — security guarantees that were provided by the U.S., Russia and U.K. so that Ukraine would surrender its Soviet-era nuclear weapons — cast a long shadow over current negotiations. And at this truly perilous moment, Zelenskyy has several points to consider:
First, the Ukrainian president is reportedly prepared to drop Ukraine’s quest for NATO membership — something the alliance had described as “irreversible” at last year’s NATO Summit — in exchange for robust security guarantees, and there are signs these could be forthcoming. So far, the U.S. has offered Ukraine “platinum standard” security guarantees, alongside the caveat that they “will not be on the table forever,” pushing Zelenskyy toward accepting the deal currently on the table.
In addition, there are hopes that these guarantees would include the provision of Tomahawk cruise missiles with a range of 1,000 kilometers — only four U.S. allies have ever been granted Tomahawks in the past. These would allow Ukraine to strike Russia’s political and military centers, thus potentially deterring the Kremlin from resuming hostilities. But while this additional capability would certainly complicate Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision-making, it’s no silver bullet.