“If Washington forces a peace on Moscow’s terms, we’ll need Europe more than ever,” a Ukrainian official told POLITICO, granted anonymity like others interviewed in this story due to the sensitivity of the matter.
Farmers push back
The EU’s tariff breaks, known as Autonomous Trade Measures, were introduced in 2022 and threw an economic lifeline to Ukraine. Initially a show of solidarity, they have since become a flashpoint, with Poland and France leading efforts to impose safeguards in 2024 on seven “sensitive” farm products, including sugar and poultry, capping duty-free imports.
Now, with the tariff breaks set to expire on June 5 and EU leaders pledging to update the terms of a 2016 trade deal instead, European farm groups argue that existing safeguards are insufficient. Ukrainian sugar, for example, remains so cheap that even after tariffs kick in post-quota, it is still profitable for European firms to import it. Lobbyists in France, Germany and Poland insist their farmers cannot compete unless Brussels intervenes more aggressively.
Adding to tensions, Ukraine’s agriculture sector has rebounded faster than expected. Despite Russia’s occupation of its farmland and the fact Ukraine is the most heavily mined country in the world, its farmers have restored much of their productive capacity, regained Black Sea export routes, and adapted to wartime conditions by ramping up production and diversifying exports.
While trade negotiations on industrial exports have gone smoothly, agricultural exports — which represent over half of Ukraine’s total exports — remain highly contentious. Ukraine’s farm revival, once seen as a strength, is now a liability in the trade talks, fueling concerns in some EU states that unrestricted Ukrainian imports could undercut local producers.
Ukrainian officials reject accusations of market disruption. They argue that their agricultural exports complement rather than threaten European production, blaming trade tensions on political maneuvering rather than actual market distortions.