DiCarlo also expressed concerns about Ukraine’s drone attacks. “Any attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure, wherever they occur, are a clear violation of international humanitarian law,” she said.
It is an argument that infuriates Ukrainian officials, who bristle when asked about the risks to Russian civilians with the tactical switch. Even asking the question triggers accusations of echoing Moscow propagandists. “You are helping Russia by pushing this civilian stuff,” a presidential aide said. He declined to answer when asked whether Ukrainian commanders adhere to any pre-strike procedures to assess risks to civilians.
The change in tactics has alarmed some European officials, according to Adrian Karatnycky, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center and author of Battleground Ukraine, who regularly meets with senior European officials and diplomats. “They have always been low-risk and fearful of Russian escalation,” he said.
The shift, he added, has been enabled by Ukraine’s growing ability to manufacture its own long-range drones and by cuts in U.S. assistance that have reduced Washington’s leverage over Kyiv. “There will be noncombatant casualties, but in an existential war you can’t fight with a hand tied behind your back,” Karatnycky said. “Ukraine’s ability to counterpunch is a relatively new phenomenon.”
How will the Ukrainian attacks play out in Russia — will they weaken Putin politically? Tim Willasey-Wilsey, a former U.K. diplomat now at the Royal United Services Institute, a defense think tank in London with close ties to Ukraine’s defense ministry, said Kyiv must try to minimize civilian casualties with the long-range drone campaign.
“There are some risks,” he said. “As we know from the history of warfare, the bombing of civilians tends to actually harden people’s resistance rather than weaken it. Just think of the London Blitz, but also Ukraine now. And second, there is a danger of losing what still is a remarkable degree of Western support for Ukraine.”
“But you cannot wage war without casualties,” he added.