“We predict with high probability a transition from manipulative influence to the [Russian Federation] special services’ armed provocation, resulting in significant human casualties,” the intelligence service said in a statement.
“The location of the provocation may be a religious building or other object of high symbolic significance both in [Russia] and in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine,” the statement read.
The spy service said the Kremlin intended to pin the attacks on Ukraine by deploying Western-made drones brought from the front line to the site of the faked attack.
Such operations are “consistent with modus operandi of Russian special services,” the Ukrainian secret service continued.
“Putin’s regime has repeatedly used this tactic within the [Russian Federation], and now this same model is being exported abroad, as indirectly confirmed by public statements from senior Russian officials,” the intelligence service added.
A series of attacks widely viewed as an example of this tactic are the apartment bombings in 1999 that struck the Russian cities of Moscow, Buynaksk, and Volgodonsk, killing more than 300 people and injuring more than 1,000. The attacks, officially blamed on Chechen militants, were used to launch a new war in Chechnya, and boost Putin’s popularity ahead of elections.